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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (8525)	1/21/2004 10:30:53 AM
From: BWAC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

<'When to sell' would be a good topic to discuss.> Yesterday would have been a good time. Or on the runup a few weeks ago. These things are priced for the peak earnings that are still to come. Beyond that fair value, we're all banking on some sucker to buy higher and the broker pimps to help run the price upwards to suck the suckers in. And of course it will work like a 100% charm probably.

To: Gottfried who wrote (8525)	1/21/2004 2:43:07 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Gottfried, the following data I have shows the following. With IBD's RS at 63, and bookings and billings are at their highs it appears that AMAT's price is not reached. Going back to 1996 we see that AMAT has made or exceeded 200% growth in price during each cycle. I do not have the data prior to that time. Paul Hope you can make the below data out. Current cycle; May.03 723.5 805.4 0.9 13.49-15.76 11- June '03 722.3 776.5 0.93 15.15-17.69 Jly '03 706.9 785.9 0.9 15.40-18.84 Aug '03 731.8 792.3 0.92 17.69-22.34 Sept '03 778.8 811.1 0.96 18.11-22.33 Oct. '03 871 866.5 1.01 18.19-23.53 Nov. '03 923.3 876.4 1.05 22.71-25.94 Dec. '03 1100.3 917.6 1.2 20.61-24.68 63- MTH Orders, Shipment, BTB, Price, Rel. Strgth, Ind. Pr Rk JAN'96 30-41.375 (Low # best) JLY'96 992 1311 0.76 21.75-32.25 <10 AUG'96 882 1248 0.71 23.125-27.50 <10 SEPT'96 778 1119 0.7 22.75-29.375 11-15 OCT'96 833 1072 0.78 25.625-30.50 11-27 NOV'96 952 1062 0.9 25.875-39.75 15-79 DEC'96 1078 1069 1.01 33.875-40.50 60-87 JAN'97 1116 1034 1.08 34.6875-49.625 65-94 FEB'97 1101 1029 1.07 40.875-55.125 90-95 MARCH'97 1265 1102 1.15 43.25-54.125 94-95 APR'97 1386 1261 1.1 44.875-55 94-96 MAY'97 1421 1299 1.09 53.50-72 95-97 JU'97 1487 1375 1.07 57.5625-74.625 95-97 JLY'97 1659 1476 1.12 70.625-93.25 95-97 AUG'97 1400.5 1536 1.1 88.25-108.375 96-99 OCT'98 638 852.3 0.75 21.5625-36.625 NOV'98 767.2 913.6 0.84 32.1875-43 DEC'98 883.4 920.9 0.96 37.3125-47 JAN'99 996.7 890 1.12 42.875-64.0625 FEB'99 1028.8 845 1.22 55.3125-71.625 MAR'99 1256.9 943.5 1.33 54.50-67.0625 APR'99 1405.1 1099.1 1.28 48.4375-68.875 MAY'99 1514.2 1216.7 1.24 50.75-67.25 JUNE'99 1560.5 1288.3 1.21 53.50-75 JLY'99 1530.9 1375.2 1.11 68.0625-79.9375 AUG'99 1565.1 1440.7 1.09 62.25-79.25 SEP'99 1502.2 1406.5 1.07 71.25-84.9375 OCT'99 1592 1465 1.09 73.5625-90.1875 NOV'99 1694.5 1528.5 1.11 87.50-113.25 DEC'99 1907.9 1597.9 1.19 98.125-129 JAN'00 2227.3 1603.5 1.39 111-146.625 FEB'00 2301.5 1564.3 1.44 133.25-189.75 The question is where we are at during this cycle.

To: Gottfried who wrote (8525)	1/23/2004 7:19:22 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25522

Hi G, We've only just begun. Orders are just beginning. First orders come off the bottom and backlogs grow. Then SCE "ramp up" to address backlogs. Then efficiencies of scale stretch multiples. Then double ordering occurs - swelling backlogs. Then Guru's extrapolate annual earnings. Then Guru's issue buy orders. Then price goes up fast as multiples expand. The your neighbor talks about retiring early. We check our 3-4 hundred percent gains 3-4 times a day. That's when you sell. All markets peak when greed becomes dominant emotion - up until then "Buy the Dip". See how easy it is? We are way early in the cycle - easy money has been made.Hard part coming up - much more volatility and whiplash - but still FAR from top. JMHO Bob