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Technology Stocks : Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: All Mtn Ski who wrote (4938)	1/23/2004 3:22:47 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5867

I don't think we are going to see this cycle sustain itself beyond this year. On what basis? We had a 3 year down cycle, the longest in history, with record low capex levels. There are many fabs which will be built in the coming years which have not even been announced as yet. Why do you believe we will have a 1-2 year upcycle after a vicious 3 year downcycle? History is not on your side.

To: All Mtn Ski who wrote (4938)	1/23/2004 6:06:13 PM
From: Jong Hyun Yoo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5867

Yes.. If your forecast of duration of current upturn is correct, LRCX reaching $60 is not going to happen.. In fact, under your senario, today's share price mostly reflect full future earning power and shares are likely to head lower from here. Or least minimal upside from here. I guess that is why people sold semi-equipment stocks in recent trading days. Although I fully respect your opinions, I have a bit different take on this upturn. Mainly it has substantial additional leg from here. I am not sure if this upturn will last till 2007 as Cary predicts but I don't see the upturn ending at least till late 2005, meaning the stocks are likely to peak sometime in early to mid 2005. My reasons are as follows: 1) There are many skepticisms and worries about this upturn versus everyone was gangbuster about the strength of semiconductor business in the last upturn. Essentially people are much more cautious about adding capacity, ensuring supply stays checked with the demand. 2) Recent order strength reported by LRCX and other companines are mainly due to selective capacity buys on sub-130 nm processing on mainly 300 mm wafer tools. This is where the high margin business is right now for foundary people and they are adding capacity to equilibriate with current demand, not future forecasted demand. This ensures the fab utilization rate remains steady and high unless end market demand takes the sudden fall. 3) The economy is just starting to recover and semiconductor business is seeing uptick from selected market segments such as consumer electronics and wireless phones. The corporate spendning on IT infastructure is about to occur and this will boost PC, server, and storage market causing additional semiconductor demand. On top of this trend, there are some nascent market in the area of consumer electronics such as digital TV and PVR devices that are expected to drive further demand in coming years. All this boils down to is the need for additional equipment investment namely in the form of starting up new fabs.. On the other hand, if the economy fails to take off, all bets are off. 4) Many companies have streamlined their business during the last downturn. Companies like lrcx will not add nearly as many headcount as last upturn when the order picks up. So you don't have to go back to peak revenue to reach the peak share price reached at last upturn. I don't expect the share to go 2X, 3X, ect from current level as shares have advanced from their lows. But I don't expect the shares to peak here either.. In fact, I have a strong feeling that shares are headed higher from here...