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Strategies & Market Trends : Ride the Tiger with CD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Louis V. Lambrecht who wrote (2929)	1/24/2004 5:48:53 PM
From: Canuck Dave	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 313856

Your post sort of sums up a lot of our feelings. Things are very much in the air, and having some cash is a good idea, as well as some quality juniors or other holdings. Other than that, we're in Terra Incognito, and can only respond to events, not predict them. Putting V.CBR back on the lists. Chart starting to look attractive. CD

To: Louis V. Lambrecht who wrote (2929)	1/24/2004 11:22:27 PM
From: Step1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 313856

Louis, yes i concur, my theory is not set in stone, and it can and should accomodate many sub plots... Already i have been caught out of my major positions in energy, having kept only two stocks and a trust, and that has been a mistake in as much as it would have tempered the gold portfolio. I do not move quickly, had started selling some pm positions up until the 7th of december but then decided to wait for better prices.... At any rate no one has an even passable crystal ball, so we are all making guesses to the best of our abilities... My second reason for not wanting to be in base metals (beside the credence I give to the deflation scenario) is their steep steep appreciation in the last two months of the year. I would rather watch some more. I mentioned puts on Inco, but that is of course dependent on the resolution of labor problems at Falconbridge. Anyway, my playbook is open and has a lot of blank pages in it, but they all have a deflation header at the top. Like i said the arguments on the D side have managed to convinced me better than the other side has... Bob Hoye of Institutional Investors, Richard Russell and the fame Trotsky on kitco... FWIW. regards step1

To: Louis V. Lambrecht who wrote (2929)	1/25/2004 9:40:48 AM
From: TheSlowLane	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 313856

Louis, I have been following the comments from you and Step1 and others regarding the base metals with great interest. As someone with a heavily vested interest in the answer to the question, whither the base metals, is of more than passing concern. I have read what you and Step1 have had to say and it makes sense. I have read what Coxe has to say and that makes sense. Trying to reconcile everything makes my head hurt. Since the ultimate arbiter is the market I have decided I must stay with the trend until it changes and so I have been watching the charts very carefully. Also, I am getting close to LT cap gains on many of these positions and would rather stay long until then and that's another contributing factor. Finally, I look at anecdotal evidence to get a sense of the market as well. For example, First Quantum announced a financing last week to raise $56MM at 16/share (no warrants), a level that they have just gotten to very recently. Does this signal a top or that things are starting to really get rolling? If copper fall steeply then yes, that will spoil the party. But, if Coxe is right and copper goes to a buck forty this year then earnings of companies like FM will go through the roof. Waitin', watchin' and wonderin'... Paul