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Strategies & Market Trends : Ride the Tiger with CD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Step1 who wrote (2938)	1/25/2004 11:11:13 AM
From: Louis V. Lambrecht	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 313861

Step1 - I missed two rallies carved in stone: one on crude oil, one on the Euro, waiting for better prices also. Third one I missed, is the appreciation of the base metal equities (which started in April IMHO). Fourth, the Nano bubble. Didn't missed all of it as I went late a speculative position in ALTI @1.43. Five,.... What I meant by writing that I have no plan B. Dunno what is out favor now, and about to move up. As you are, I don't like how base metal prices shoot up. Still in silver equities as silver is both a proxy for "cheaper gold" and an industrial metal (China now uses silver plated Cu wires for the power lines). So, silver also is a China play <ggg>. Deflation? Am more in that camp too. Basically a time of overproduction with no money to buy the goods. But the monetary mass should also shrink. Last measure from the US gov to waive downpayments on mortgages is one of the silly unconventional measures they can take. Downpayment was always considered as the least capital needed to buy a house, considering that people unable to gather the downpayment would be unable to meet the mortgage annuities. So, IMHO, we have met two basic conditions for the "D", just needing a shrinkage in monetary mass (or lower velocity of money which has the same result albeit an "inflation" argument). Monetary mass used to buy equities and bond in the market, effectively reduces the monetary mass used for value added businesss and slows down the velocity as kept in a contained environment. Geez! Weekend ramblings.