To: Ann Corrigan who wrote (64 ) 1/25/2004 9:40:35 AM From: ChinuSFO Respond to of 81568 Latest Newsweek poll shows Kerry as the only Democrat who beats incumbent Bush.Newsweek Poll: And They're Off Kerry surges to the head of the pack, beating even Bush in a hypothetical election. But the Democratic horserace is still far from over. Updated: 2:30 p.m. ET Jan. 24, 2004Jan. 24 - Riding high on his victory in the Iowa caucus—and benefiting from former Vermont governor Howard Dean’s embarrassing “I have a scream” speech—Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry has surged to the head of the pack of democratic presidential hopefuls, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll, commanding 30 percent of support from registered Democrats, up from 11 percent two weeks ago. And for the first time in the poll's history a Democrat is enjoying a marginal advantage over President George W. Bush. In a hypothetical face-off, Kerry commanded a three-point lead over the president. Dean’s support among registered and likely Democrats, meanwhile, has been cut in half, to 12 percent. That puts him in three-way tie for second place in the Jan. 27 New Hampshire primary with retired Gen. Wesley Clark (12 percent) and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards (13 percent). Despite having delivered a State of the Union address that was well received by his conservative core, Bush’s own standing has slipped among registered voters. "Because of American leadership and resolve, the world is changing for the better," he declared Tuesday. But more people now say they are dissatisfied (52 percent) than satisfied (43 percent) with the way things are going in the United States, down from a post-9/11 peak last April of 50 percent satisfied. And even thought Bush used the State of the Union to emphasize his controversial tax cuts, Medicare overhaul, opposition to gay marriage and a burgeoning economic rebound, Bush saw his job performance ratings dip to 50 percent approval (versus 44 percent who disapprove)—his most negative ratings to date—suggesting a nation sharply divided over the president and his policies. To be sure, Bush is just as solidly backed by Republicans (85 percent) as he is opposed by Democrats (86 percent). Overall, 52 percent of those polled by NEWSWEEK say they would not like to see Bush serve a second term, compared to 44 percent who want to see him win again in November. As a result, Kerry is enjoying a marginal advantage over Bush, a first for the poll. Forty-nine percent of registered voters chose Kerry, compared to 46 percent who re-elected Bush. In fact, all Democrats are polling better against Bush, perhaps due to increased media attention to their primary horserace: Clark gets 47 percent of voters’ choice compared to 48 percent from Bush; Edwards has 46 percent compared to Bush’s 49; Leiberman wins 45 percent versus Bush’s 49 percent; and Dean fares the worst with 45 percent of their votes to Bush’s 50 percent. Still, voters question the ultimate electablility of anyone other than Bush in November. Seventy-eight percent of them feel it is either somewhat or very likely that Bush will be re-elected in the fall. Kerry appears to Democrats to be most electable out of the bunch, with 48 percent believing he was a good chance at defeating Bush (32 percent believe he has at least some chance). Before Iowa, 38 percent of registered Democrats thought Dean had a good shot against Bush, but that figure has dropped to 26 percent after Iowa. Electability matters to voters in choosing a candidate—although more (53 percent) say they would support a candidate who reflects their own views, 39 percent do want someone who will realistically end up supplanting Bush. So while John Kerry has become the most popular Democrat in the race (with 54 percent of all voters, and 74 percent of Democrats viewing him favorably), the race is far from over. After New Hampshire—which plays to Kerry’s New England roots, not to mention Dean’s strengths as its neighbor’s former governor—the primary race moves southbound, stopping in South Carolina and Oklahoma, among other states. Despite grumblings among party faithful that Kerry may not be paying enough attention to South Carolina, he did pick up an endorsement from Sen. Ernest F. Hollings on Friday. Still, South Carolina is the birth-state of John Edwards. And whereas Kerry enjoys much more support in the north (with 32 percent of Democrats endorsing him compared to just 10 and 11 for Edwards and Clark respectively), the lead is winnowed away below the Mason-Dixon. Kerry still leads in the south with support from 24 percent of registered Democrats, but Edwards (18 percent) and Clark (16 percent) are not far behind. Finally, Edwards is emerging as a popular alternative among all voters. He has gone from 27 percent favorable ratings (and 25 percent unfavorable) in December to 46 percent favorable and 23 percent not. Among Democrats, his ratings are close to Kerry’s at 60 percent favorable. For this NEWSWEEK poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates interviewed 1,006 adults aged 18 and older Jan. 22 and Jan. 23 by telephone. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.msnbc.msn.com