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Politics : HOWARD DEAN -THE NEXT PRESIDENT? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ann Corrigan who wrote (2450)	1/25/2004 11:28:58 PM
From: Hope Praytochange	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3079

Even if Mr. Kerry leaves New Hampshire with victories in Iowa and here, some leading Democrats say, the intensity of Dr. Dean's support and his fund-raising advantage are indicators of his staying power. Dean campaign officials, who met with top donors on Sunday, dismissed the idea that they were running out of money and expressed confidence that they could raise more. But campaign officials acknowledged they needed a strong showing here. "We need to have a solid day in New Hampshire on Tuesday," said Steven Grossman, Dr. Dean's national campaign chairman. "That's critical." Southerners like Senator John Edwards of North Carolina and General Clark, who is from Arkansas, are hoping for decent showings in New Hampshire before they move on to more favorable terrain — particularly South Carolina and Oklahoma, which hold primaries on Feb. 3. The varied political terrain of Feb. 3 could easily produce two or even three candidates able to claim a win somewhere, several Democrats and analysts said. Mr. Edwards could win South Carolina, for example, a boost to his argument that he can carry the South, but Mr. Kerry might win Missouri, bolstering his argument about his general electability. Missouri, the biggest delegate prize that day, came into play last week after the withdrawal of its favorite son, Representative Richard A. Gephardt, after a fourth place finish in Iowa. "February 3 will probably be the height of the uncertainty because we'll probably have multiple winners," said Rhodes Cook, a political analyst and expert on the nominating process. Terry McAuliffe, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, repeated his position on Sunday that candidates who have not won anything by Feb. 4 should do some hard thinking. "If you haven't won in one of the nine states in all the regions of our country, with all the different constituencies involved, then I think it's time to reassess your candidacy," Mr. McAuliffe said. Four days after the Feb. 3 contests come caucuses in Michigan and Washington. Then comes a drumbeat of states before March 2 — largely considered the ultimate test of staying power, because it costs so much to compete in big states like New York and California. Still, given how wrong the conventional wisdom has been so far, few are willing to make predictions about how long the race will truly be contested. "What makes for a drawn-out campaign?" asked Bill Carrick, who advised Mr. Gephardt's presidential campaign. "It's usually the ability of multiple candidates to hang around for a while. That requires people with strong constituencies that help them withstand it even when they start losing regularly or people with large amounts of money that allow them to keep going even if not doing well." Mr. McAuliffe, in an interview, said he never bought into the idea of a February finish. "I've always said by March 10, because by that point 71 percent of the pledged delegates will have been chosen," he said.