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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (6148)	1/25/2004 5:26:54 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

incredibly shallow article on the jyen-dollar and gold misses most of the major factors at work BOJ blew $190B in 2003 what they invested in dropped 10% in value since Oct03 author thinks that can proceed ad infinitum ??? not a chance BOJ claims they intend to blow $400B in 2004 we will see forces of nature will be working harder to prevent that in 2004 simple things like capital flows as the jyen rises more, the trade gap will still remain high I sincerely doubt that American addictive spending habits will cut back, even if prices of Asian imports rise / jim

To: orkrious who wrote (6148)	1/25/2004 6:37:19 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

4 year cycles - post from Brian on my board The 4-Year cycle bottomed in 1998 and in 2002, with the high of that cycle hitting the 2000 top. The current 4-year cycle is scheduled to top in 2004 some time, and bottom around 2006. There have been a few times when the length of the cycle has been stretched to 5 or 6 years, or shorted to 3 years, but it has been it has been amazingly consistent over the last 100 years. During raging bull markets however, the high of the cycle rarely lead to a market high, but the low of the cycle always seemed to have an effect. Below are charts with cycle highs and lows for the Dow from 1900-2004 (if you hold your cursor over the picture, click the icon to enlarge): tinyurl.com tinyurl.com tinyurl.com tinyurl.com tinyurl.com 2006 seems to fit with the EW picture as well. I honestly can't wait to be comfortably long again. Brian

To: orkrious who wrote (6148)	1/26/2004 12:56:44 AM
From: BEEF JERKEY	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

"However, in the scheme of issuance of debt instruments by "USA" Government, even when the total amount of debt instruments in the hands of "Japanese" Government becomes equal to the total value of real assets of "USA", "Japanese" Government can use creative accounting to book the newly issued debt instruments, which in reality do not have any intrinsic value any more, as still equivalent to gold and make the wealth of "Japan" appear to continue to grow.If "Japanese" citizens let their mercantilist government get away with this kind of deception, then this foolish scheme of the mercantilist "Japanese" Government can go on indefinetely to the joy of "USA" consumers" I think this statement resembles where the US now stands vis a vis Asia. Right now Asia is tripping over itself to ship the USA hard goods (cars, steel etc.) in return for "net" electronic dollars with lots of zeros attached. This is occurring to the point that there is a serious theoretical imbalance between the geographical areas. Some would argue Asia is stealing the wealth of the US. But who is screwing who here? It seems unlikely that Asia will be able to convert those masses of dollars into as much real value. Spend them in the non USA world and they will quickly become worth less and less. Try to buy up significant %'s of the "real assets" of the USA in the US itself and you quickly will piss off the most powerful nation on earth as soon as as your purchases cross the threshold of "threatening". What else can Asia do but recycle it's dollars into US treasuries? I think the US has done a masterful job of exploiting Asia. Asia gets the poverty and pollution - the US standard of living gets boosted.