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To: redfish who wrote (6230)	1/26/2004 11:31:18 AM
From: epicure	Respond to of 20773

Of course there are things we can do to prevent it. We aren't cavemen, and our science is pretty good, if we throw resources at the problem- and odds are against it destroying civilization as we know it. Of course if we stick our heads in the sand, and fail to shore up our medical resources, and fail to support the CDC and WHO, then yes, we will be in deep doodoo. A nuclear holocaust is much more likely to destroy civilization as we know it. That too, can be prevented.

To: redfish who wrote (6230)	1/26/2004 12:04:22 PM
From: zonder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 20773

I think it is fair to say that it is inevitable that a virus will sweep the globe, destroying civilization as we know it I doubt that very much, for the following reasons: (1) Viruses ("virii"?) are parasites (i.e. they need hosts to live and propagate) and as such, it is in their own interest to NOT completely wipe out nor cause a significant decrease in the population of their hosts. Of course they do not consciously make this decision, but fortunately, natural selection/evolution moves a species in the direction of its best interests. [Here, there is need for a caveat: Humans can now design and manufacture viruses in a laboratory. Last year, scientists assembled a virus from mail-order DNA sequences. This means, natural viruses may no longer be our only problem. You think nuclear weapons are bad? Think about a virus genetically engineered to wipe out only the Asians. Or the whole human race....] (2) Our understanding of medical sciences are better than ever before, and we now have a variety of anti-viral treatments that even keep HIV from developing into AIDS for decades - i.e. we are no longer helpless like the Europeans who suffered the Black Death in the Middle Ages. (3) Humanity is much better organized and on the lookout for viruses than ever before. See article below: wired.com (4) Thanks to the diversity of the human genes and its myriad mutations, there are always those among us who are resistant or even immune to a particular virus. 30-50% of Europe's total population perished from Black Death in the 14th Century, but the rest survived, and that was an era where anti-virals were unheard of and the understanding of transmission and sanitation measures left much to be desired. There are also people who have complete immunity to HIV, some of whom are genetically protected and the rest just seem to have a highly activated immune system. aegis.com Imho, it looks more likely that life on earth might be wiped out by a meteor a la "Deep Impact". Or an accidental black hole created in a particle accelerator by fumbling physicists. Or, my personal favourite, "gray goo" - the scenario whereby nanobots (tiny robots) designed for self-reproduction do so ad infinitum :-) Here is an interesting article from Bill Joy, co-founder and (at the time he wrote this) Chief Scientist of SUN Microsystems: wired.com It is a bit long but a very interesting article, written by someone who is actually familiar with the technologies he fears, unlike the religious nuts who want to outlaw cloning :-)