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Politics : Moderate Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zonder who wrote (6244)	1/26/2004 12:26:11 PM
From: redfish	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 20773

Look what a few hundred deaths from SARs did to Hong Kong, and imagine it coming back every year. It wouldn't take too much to throw the modern world into chaos. Also I don't think you can assume that modern medicine is all good and no bad. Eradicating smallpox was a wonderful thing, saved millions of lives, but if smallpox were to be unleashed again, the effects would be worse than ever because most of us have never been exposed to it and lack natural immunity. Every year we come up with a vaccine to counter the latest strain of flu. I think it is reasonable to say that this will result in natural selection favoring those mutations that are least susceptable to our vaccines. We have seen a point of diminishing returns with antibiotics, who is to say the same may not happen with vaccines, and that someday we may reach into our quiver and find that we are all out of arrows.

To: zonder who wrote (6244)	1/26/2004 12:29:04 PM
From: Crocodile	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 20773

All of those points are true, but at the same time, there are several complicating factors. 1.) Not all of the world has access to the same level of health care, medications, specialists in disease prevention and control. 2.) Many populations in the world are already under stress from malnutrition, disease, and may lack access to clean water, basic housing, and reside in areas where there are mosquitoes, flies, etc.. that may aid in the spread of disease. 3.) Rapid transfer of viruses via planes, etc.. In Europe, the plague spread slowly enough and was centered around seaports -- enough so, that the wealthier people took off and stayed out in the countryside to avoid infection (if I remember correctly, the basis of Boccaccio's "Decameron" is of a group of privileged people waiting out the plague out in the countryside, and telling stories to entertain each other). With the movement of people, food, products, etc.. from place to place around the globe, any spread of disease will be very rapid. 4.) Mutation of animal viruses is becoming complicated. We're using the same medications on animals that we use on humans (exactly the same antibiotics, etc...). In fact, some medications -- some of the more powerful ones with a wider range of side-effects, have been used on animals to a much greater extent than on humans. The net result has been the development of some very powerful bugs that are resistant to the same or even a greater number of medications than those found in humans. If those bugs jump species, they'll probably already have resistance to just about anything we can throw at them. 5.) The number and variations of bacteria, viruses and retro-viruses found in animals is increasing rapidly (it has been for the past 25 or so years). The number that can jump species is on the rise. Some of them have had very serious consequences within their normal host species, so I don't think we can expect things to be any less serious when they get into the human population. A lot of the above complications have to do with out own technology -- travel around the globe -- extensive use (or some would say overuse) of medications -- high density populations -- foods handled at many stages by many people in many places -- and the mixing together of human wastes with chemicals and even drug residues in sewage sludge being spread on agricultural land in almost every country of the world. Some scientists consider all of the above to be the ingredients of a biological time bomb. I think I have to agree.