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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Biomaven who wrote (10147)	1/26/2004 4:59:39 PM
From: scaram(o)uche	Respond to of 52153

>> One indicator to focus on is whether you see weakness or strength after a follow-on offering is priced. << That one has really emerged as an indicator of how much speculative cash is out and how brave the hands are behind it. I agree. If it's strength, it's dart board.

To: Biomaven who wrote (10147)	1/26/2004 5:19:57 PM
From: OldAIMGuy	Respond to of 52153

Hi Peter, Yes, the November lows have given, even in this index, a solid 16% gain in just a couple of months. I've been watching the total IPO activity relative to the issues outstanding. We're hovering right around 7000 issues being traded on the NYSE and the NASDAQ. It's been falling slowly for several years. We peaked at well over 9000 issues a few years ago. My GENE has had a good few weeks. Others haven't done as well so far this year. Best regards, Tom

To: Biomaven who wrote (10147)	1/26/2004 6:06:32 PM
From: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 52153

>>There's this weird drop in broad measurements of money supply the last few months - in the past this has often foretold weakness in the equity markets. William Poole, President of the St. Louis Fed, commented that the FED did not understand the decline in ALL measures of MS over the last several months. We knew it was declining - but it surprised me that the FED seem not to understand why MS was declining. Bill Gross has stated he expects rising interest rates this year but stated that 200bp would be the limit and that anything beyond that would carry dire consequences. I agree with Peter that the declines in MS pose a real risk for investors and bloody-stubs tell me that biotechs will take it harder than companies with solid financials. The question in my mind is how long the time lag will be before the sinking MS kicks the market in the teeth. My guess is we have another week to 3 months of clear sailing before the headwinds set in. Add to this the seasonality of money flows in and out of the market and prudence should govern our investing between now and the November election. JMHO ij