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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: pezz who wrote (45387)1/30/2004 4:58:08 PM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 74559
 
Hello Pezz, Early Saturday Morning Report:
I got busy today, waking up to do something in market arena but was not sure what, until after I did ;0)

I unloaded a good part of my USD-space energy portfolio, to claim loot and readying to eventually redeploy the troops as opportunities present themselves.

I unloaded before the mob electorates gets a chance to slap on domestic energy commodity price controls, add state tithe takings, or the insiders have to explain any missing reserves, and besides, the yields of the US energy trusts no longer justify the risks:

I sold the entirety of my BP Prodhoe Bay at 25.65, claiming a lot of capital loot amounting to 36% (and do not forget the divvies) Message 19065726 <<June 26th, 2003>>.

I sold the entirety of my Hugoton uk.finance.yahoo.com holdings for USD 19.15-19.17/shr, claiming mucho capital spoils adding up to about 35% (but do not forget the divvies) Message 18381801 <<December 30th, 2002>>, Message 18959120 <<May 20th, 2003>>.

I sold the entirety of my San Juan Trust uk.finance.yahoo.com for USD 19.15-19.31, claiming much capital moolah, call it 35%, (again, do not forget the divvies) Message 18253310 <<November 19th, 2002>>,
Message 18381801 <<December 30th, 2002>>, and Message 18959120 <<May 20th, 2003>>.

I think folks have bid the yields on the above energy wagers down in line with the bidding on junk bonds, and so I opt out, for now, just as I opted out of my shipping trusts earlier Message 19729999 , just as a platoon of soldiers in the death match arena should, every so often, make some unexpected moves, else get corralled into a trap.

Since I got out of slumber land so early, and I was on a roll, I looked at my NEM and its derivative positions, and did the following:

I closed out my shorted NEM March covered Call strike 40 positions at USD 3.20/contract, at a tiny profit Message 19202671 <<August 12th, 2003>>, and Message 19291358 <<September 10th, 2003>>;

I closed out my shorted NEM March covered Call strike 45 positions at USD 1.00/contract, at a larger profit of USD 1.62/contract Message 19332450 <<September 22nd, 2003>>

My NEM derivative positions are as follows:
Short NEM Feb Put 42.5 @ 1.05
Short NEM June Put 42.5 @ 1.90
Short NEM June Put 37.5 @ 1.75- 1.80

… and given that my NEM shares are no longer covered by burdensome calls, I may slop on some calls when I feel in tune with the Force, perhaps at 42.5 strike, perhaps waiting for higher NEM price when the gold bull is fully rested.

I feel like a piranha, nibbling at the NEM as it swims up and down in price achamchen.com , generally lowering the cost basis of my NEM shares :0)

Chugs, Jay

P.S. above references:
Message 18253310
November 19th, 2002
… full wack of San Juan Trust (SJT) at 13.05

Message 18381801
December 30th, 2002
… Hugoton Royalty (HGT) @ 12.74
… San Juan Trust (SJT) @ 13.71

Message 18959120
May 20th, 2003
… Same again for Hugoton at USD 16.05
… Same once more for San Juan at USD 16.35

Message 19065726
June 26th, 2003
… Tranche of BP Prudhoe Bay uk.finance.yahoo.com at USD 18.85

Message 19202671
August 12th, 2003
I shorted a dollop of NEM March Strike 40 Covered Calls @ USD 3.2/shr.


Message 19291358
September 10th, 2003
(a) Bought another dollop of Newmont Mining at USD 39.40ish
(b) Shorted equal dollop of NEM March 2004 Put strike 35 @ USD 1.90ish
(c) Shorted equal dollop of NEM March 2004 covered Call strike 40 @ USD 3.80

Message 19332450
September 22nd, 2003
Shorted NEM March covered Call strike 45 @ USD 2.60-2.65/shr.



To: pezz who wrote (45387)2/2/2004 4:26:52 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Good morning Pezz, Report – Australia Front:
I have ordered my AUD troops to abandon their BHP uk.finance.yahoo.com and Rio Tinto uk.finance.yahoo.com positions, fall back to AUD cash position, and yes, beat a retreat now so as to not suffer a rout later.

I sold my BHP position for AUD 11.33/shr, claiming a loot of AUD 2.24/shr in capital gains and AUD 0.31/shr in dividends, amounting to 28% of goodies Message 18504197 <<January 28th, 2003>>, and if translated back to my base currency HKD/USD, tack on another 32% of mysterious currency gains. Lessons? Anticipate the hot sectors, go with the strong currencies, and do not belittle dividends.

I sold my Rio Tinto position for AUD 35.55, claiming a loot of AUD 3.38/shr in capital gains and AUD 1.25/shr in dividends, amounting to 14% of goodies Message 18504197 <<January 28th, 2003>>, and … 32% of above mentioned and still mysterious currency gains. Lessons? Do not try to pick winners, buy the sector, and never mind the balance sheets and P/Ls.

I am terribly afraid. I know logically that the USD should continue to go down, and I feel intuitively that minerals should continue to inflate, but a voice within says, ‘Jay, conviction kills, and absolute conviction slaughters totally’. I am also expecting China soft-landing, and Asian financial market turmoil, plus a possible US market tanking. The odds are not favorable, and so it is best to run, while the running is still good.

The issue, as always, is, ‘which direction?’

Chugs, Jay