Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (6630)	1/31/2004 8:40:42 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Actually it is both a ruse and not a ruse. Greenspan knows full well if he has to hike the bubble bursts. I believe foreign markets know that too. Personally I think this was "orchestrated nonsense". Unless and until Japan and China do not need our markets and our consumers the game continues. I think that is easily 2 more years, especially if China tries to quell its markets and that seem to be happening. Everyone and I mean virtually everyone now thinks "it is only a matter of time before interest rates go up". Even Heinz is on board now. Perhaos I am stubborn. Perhaps not. But...... I contend that rates MAY raise BUT not as much as expected. That has been my game plan all along. I do not think there is a snowball's chance in hell that Europe hikes. Furthermore, if the US markets sell off in "anticipation" of a hike, none will be necessary. I stick to the call. No hike before the election. IF and ONLY if jobs improve, do we see a hike at all. I still have it as 50/50 that the next move is a CUT. Mish

To: yard_man who wrote (6630)	1/31/2004 8:45:05 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

As assinine as this sounds I do not think there is a bubble in treasuries (at least compared to stocks, corporate bonds, municipals, and most assuredly junk). In short treasuries are the least likely to be defaulted on, unless and until the other virtually collapse. I expect a flattening of the yield curve where 10 yr rates approach 30 year rates and treasury and the long bond yield drops. IF we ever wipe out this debt, it will be time to short bonds and make a fortune. That chance may not occur for 10 years. Mish