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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (6765)	2/2/2004 5:23:28 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

not so sure about that, rates will not go lower that would be a giant kick down the Liquidity Trap you overlook the USDollar story I never pay much heed to Secy Inflation Greenspasm's words I listen to his topics during speeches Let's get back to the middle ground here. You and I can seem to do it rather easily. I am not suggesting that Greenspan is about to cut now. IF housing collapses here or jobs collapse here, he will. More than likely, in those circumstances, Europe will have already cut, and perhaps the US$ will have risen to where Greenspan will not care. He is attempting to buy himself time. You and I both know it will not work, but they are going to drag this out kicking and screaming just like Japan did. M

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (6765)	2/2/2004 5:24:26 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Investment Banks Outsourcing to India A number of big names have quietly hired Indian firms or set up their own subsidiaries on the subcontinent to handle basic financial modeling and comparable analysis. CFO Magazine February 02, 2004 The offshoring trend has taken another surprising turn. Having successfully outsourced to India such back-office functions as IT, investment banks are now sending some of their financial analysis and research overseas. In recent months, firms including J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley have quietly hired Indian firms or set up their own subsidiaries in India to handle basic financial modeling and comparable analysis. ... cfo.com\|\|T\|41,00.html?f=todayinfinance_next Also, from same site today: News Briefs Fully 88 percent of 165 senior executives believe that 2004 will see an increase in the outsourcing of jobs overseas by American companies, according to a survey conducted by executive search firm Christian & Timbers. Another 7 percent said the level of outsourcing will remain the same, while 5 percent predicted a decrease.... cfo.com\|\|T\|41,00.html?f=todayinfinance_next

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (6765)	2/2/2004 6:38:38 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Mises on this current situation (IMO). The reason I'm saying the Fed must act, is that we are are now entering the crack-up boom phase, after which it will truly be too late. The second maladjustment aspect he speaks of is already too late.: He warned, "The credit expansion boom is built on the sands of banknotes and deposits. It must collapse." He stated that, "If the credit expansion is not stopped in time, THE BOOM TURNS INTO THE CRACK-UP BOOM; THE FLIGHT INTO REAL VALUES BEGIN, and the whole monetary system founders. Continuous inflation (credit expansion) must finally end in the crack-up boom and the complete breakdown of the currency system." Mises further claimed that, "Expansion (of credit) squanders scarce factors of production by malinvestment and overconsumption." Malinvestment means building shopping centers rather than factories. Overconsumption means a borrowing and spending boom by consumers that depletes savings and reduces capital investment. Mises was aware that a credit excess could spill over into stock and bond speculation. But even he would be surprised at today's unprecedented level of credit-induced speculation. He would be depressed by the astonishing levels of public and private debt, government borrowing, central bank market interventions, trade deficits, non-bank credit growth, money velocity, illiquidity, overconsumption and foreign indebtedness. The magnitude of these excesses seemingly without penalties would appear to be rewriting the laws of economics as expressed by Mises. Trade deficits fail to harm the dollar. The stock market outperforms the economy. Capital gets used up by government and consumers at the expense of investment. Yet business rolls along. Savings are depleted but interest rates stay low. The boom seems unending, the bust postponed indefinitely. Can these phenomenon persist? Absolutely not says Mises. "Credit expansion is not a nostrum to make people happy. The boom it engenders must inevitably lead to a debacle and unhappiness." He warns that, "Accidental, institutional, and psychological circumstances generally turn the outbreak of the crisis into a panic. The description of these awful events can be left to the historians. It is not...(our task)...to depict in detail the calamities of panicky days and weeks and to dwell upon their sometimes grotesque aspects."