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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (45605)	2/4/2004 3:27:10 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello Mary, I got out of bed, saw your post, and figured, what the hey … <<Both your attitudes concerning things US are on the whole are condescending>> I think you are taking our observations too personally, attributing nuances that are not there, ascribing feelings that are absent. I like to think that folks have better things to do than to push an idea and act on the underlying belief (buy, accumulate, hold, sell, short) simply to act nasty. The objective is financial survival, and very little else. Sometimes our observations irk some folks, pop their delusions, shatter their fantasies, making them reflect on what is happening, pushing them to push back against the messenger. Well, if they cannot take a joke, ... The journey to TeoTwawKi is long, we just got underway, and the travel should be much fun. <<But Wall Street has some pretty sharp minds and they are aware of the Chinese economy>> Well, that is certainly true, but I believe these sharp minds undoubtedly are not the ones you are likely to have come across in Wall Street Journey, NYT, CNBC, etc, for the popular media suffer from intelligence failure; else the lonely path would be a busy eight lane highway. <<If Jay can bring something sensible to the table, those guys are going to jump at it>> ... you mean like this Message 18226135 <<November 12th, 2002>> ? <<ignore his life style that seems to come from watching "Casablanca" the movie. (I am sure Jay can take a little ribbing - as he says he is thick skinned - although I am not at all too sure about that)>> ... eh, yes, but I am not sure what you are trying to say here, and so, at least on this reference I have no reaction one way or another. As to the ribbing, it is not a problem because now that you are here on the thread, with a presence, I can knock on your door every so often ;0) <<From, the way the discussion is going on this thread, the question becomes whether the US will completely collapse or not>> Some folks discussion in this airport lounge thread is about that. There are other simultaneous strands of conversation that revolves around 'hi pezz, i see trouble but am not sure where to run toward, and gad, i see maurice committing financial self-flagellation, am we should try to make him stop’ and other discussions are like ‘hey guys, I am wandering around going here there and everywhere, let me tell you about what I am looking at now Message 19761527 ‘. As to the issue concerning Collapse, I think we may have reached a majority agreement on the thread that the collapse is a process, not an event, and as such, we do not know until we know, but must guard against the possibilities by trying to be scientific, as in observe, analyze, exchange views, debate, and act in accordance with gaming best practice. <<am kind of new here and therefore did not catch your major drift. But I do get the picture, especially wrt to Jay, that you are relentlessly patting yoursellves on the back for spotting the US equities bubble and in someways monetizing that view.>> If we do not pat ourselves on the back what will you have us do, beat ourselves up? This is a game where we play, we win, we taunt, we lose, we learn something. It is that simple. And no, we do not just pat ourselves on the back for having come through the pre-crash in one piece, we also try to nail the next trade, stir fry another stock, flip one more company, and win a few more bets. <<However, as they say, it ain't over until it's over>> Yes, that is the reason for the fear, and we are the first ones to admit it Message 19758528 , but that is also the reason for the fun. So, contribute something when you care to. What are you invested in, and what do you see? Chugs, Jay

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (45605)	2/4/2004 4:34:47 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

Mary you seen to put a lot of weight in the US universities. China strengths is not the number of graduates. It is the capacity to amass millions of peasants, urbanizing them and make them do productive work. Japan did that. Germany did that. We can't give the credit for the Max Planck Institute or Tokyo's University for those 'Wirtschaftwundern'. It is barely literate, half literate and illiterate people used by a governing elite to make an economy. Like those shiploads of immigrants did to the US. Once the economy arrives. Once the results have been achieved, then academia comes and steals the show. They tell about their grandeur and their bright minds. The guys who really built don't have a say on it. But I don't hear or read much about the failures of other countries being ascribed to the failure of their university establishment. Any country that have made a go at it, have relied on the mass of people. Not on an educated elite. Educated elites serve to feed -as brain drain- the developed countries with cheap educated people. Do not count in NYU, Stamford or Berkeley to save the day. You can count on them to be bribed to go again to the Moon and Mars as they've been bribed for Star Wars. In this respect they are a drag on the US economy.

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (45605)	2/4/2004 4:40:58 PM
From: Dr. Voodoo	Respond to of 74559

Relax, We're just making observations. Don't mean to appear condescending. Don't the chinese need some love too? Here, read a little cousin Ike. He'll cheer you up. ;-) Message 19727627 Feel better now? The super macro trend that I do see comes from a book written by Herman Kahn, from I beleive the Hudson institue, in a book written in the 1960-70 time. He wrote and predicted a global economic boom. Something about more scientists working and living now than all the scientist put together in the past - creating opportunitties and much higher standards of living for everyone. Just an cryptic observation, but the name of this thread is Booms, Busts, and Recoveries. So where are we now? Globally, regionally, industrially those are all subject to interpretation. All the horses run fast, we just wanna win, place, show, or hit the trifecta. the question becomes whether the US will completely collapse or not. I can't speak for others, but I for one didn't necessarily think this is the question, but more something that looks real and I should be prepared for. I don't think anybody here has an agenda, I could be wrong.. That WFG guy sure seems suspicious. ;-) I'm surely not trying to pat myself on the back and the metaphor was more about getting whipsawed by a huge amount of money that I just never saw coming in China. 8 years ago, they were building like fools empty buildings with nobody in them, shiny new roads, and tearing apart whole cities from the ground up and I said to myself. "What the hell are they doing???". Now homes are selling for triple, and the buildings are full to capacity, and there is still ROOM to grow. I don't think we're being arrogant, we're just trying to keep our eyes open and go with the flow. I have a friend who sells Avon in china.... Remember Avon? Richest dood I know and getting richer by the day. Selling Avon. 4 years ago I walked away and thought that guy was gonna get rich selling Avon. He'll keep getting rich too for a long time to come. WRT to infrastructure, most of that infrastructure capital was spent and obsolesced keeping up with the Jones. I just don't think it's as big a barrier as you. I think you can hop on the infrastructure train anytime in science. Especially once you've got a group of people who know how to develop and make use of existing technology. I think the rate limiting factor in China is educating the rural mass. I for one feel like the opportunities abound in places like china because it is such and untapped market. Don't get me wrong, there are gonna be hiccups along the way. V

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (45605)	2/4/2004 5:20:16 PM
From: Seeker of Truth	Respond to of 74559

Mary Cluney, Let me give you a demo of showing one's investment interests. I have 75% of my money in real estate companies in Canada and Europe. 10% in China, notably Sinotrans,PICC Insurance, Yanzhou Coal and a small amount of TravelSky Tech. 15% in energy stocks, Canadian oil trusts and a Norwegian oil company, Statoil, and three Russian companies. Also I sell puts on NEM quite regularly. Thus far, fine results. It's still a long way until Feb. 20 :-). I think others have quite different portfolios. Everybody wants to sleep well at night. For some sleeping well means no dreams; for others it means wild, exhilarating, happy dreams. I go for the former. Lots of luck to you.

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (45605)	2/4/2004 6:08:21 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<He wrote and predicted a global economic boom. Something about more scientists working and living now than all the scientist put together in the past - creating opportunitties and much higher standards of living for everyone.> Mary, that's just a minor part of it. Everyone creates a surplus and there are now 6 billion people creating value in one vast synergistic monster economy. No longer is there only 1 billion agrarian people living almost totally within the realm of their own state and political system as there was a century ago, with vast wars every now and then and Malthusian-based territorial conflicts and overpopulation with low-value people the main issue. There has been 150 years of industrial revolution all turbo-charging the process. Science being only part of the process, though an essential underpinning. Now, we have something of staggering proportions which almost nobody appreciates and those who do are bewildered about what it means and can only guess. See rants by Ray Kurzweil, Stephen Hawking, Bill Joy and your humble servant. The industrial revolution replaced our muscles. Cyberspace is replacing our brains. Google is much better than our memory, for example. But more than that, I don't even seen why cyberspace should bother with our limited talents at all. Just as we don't depend on our chimpanzee cousins' talents though they [or chimpoids like them] were the framework on which we were built. Children don't owe their parents a living and cyberspace won't owe the creators of It a living. This is all really big time. The gloomsters and doomsters go on about returns to the mean and the norm. There is no mean. There is no norm. The sky's the limit. There is no sky. There is no limit. Yes, there will be vicissitudes and crunches and volatility and major trauma, but the trend is our friend. Mqurice

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (45605)	2/4/2004 9:09:23 PM
From: BubbaFred	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Mary - Here are my 2cents worth: <<(I am sure Jay can take a little ribbing - as he says he is thick skinned - although I am not at all too sure about that).>> That fellow Jay, he THRIVES on it and his main reason to live in SI and this BBR thread. <<...creating opportunitties and much higher standards of living for everyone.>> Particularly for about 5%-10% of the 2 billions in China and India. That's a lot of rich folks who can buy luxury items from Europe and US. <<...who are going to benefit more...>> Those natural born capitalists, mostly in Asia (China). Those folks have social customs that rely on oneself and close tight families that don't believe in handouts. An example is that new immigrants to San Francisco Chinatown always take over the businesses there. The first and second generation Chinese Americans have to open a mini Chinatown in Oakland. Likewise in Los Angeles, New York, etc. Go ahead and go to Oakland Chinatown and you'll be shocked to hear how they speak - just doesn't feel like Chinatown. <<..whether the US will completely collapse or not..>> Unlikely to collapse completely. However, the mighty British Empire is a mere shadow of her former grandeur, and they were hardly hit by WWI and WWII compared to the decimation of continental Europe. That's not bad at all. <<..any kind of leaderhip from the White House, it doesn't have to be super intelligent, we can maintain our leadership in the world for quite some time..>> That would be nice if it happens. Here are several posts to show why it's just natural human-like sequence of events that are likely to unfold: Message 19734845 "The average age of the worlds greatest civilizations from the beginning of history, has been about 200 years. During those 200 years, these nations always progressed through the following sequence: From Bondage to spiritual faith; From spiritual faith to great courage; From courage to liberty; From liberty to abundance; From abundance to complacency; From complacency to apathy; From apathy to dependence; From dependence back into bondage." Message 19710139 geocities.com Message 19759537 financialsense.com Message 19680527 Our form of government is not conducive to meet the challenging condition we are facing today. What's needed it long term 20-30 year plan that would include some austerity measures. The dragon has awakened, and there is no rational long term plan to counter or to cooperate with new prospects for higher prosperity. Rather than thoughtful long term plans, we select leadership by popularity contests and we become zombies to mass psychology, and we choose leadership with the wrong priorities and agenda. China's leadership is slowly and stealthily making strong diplomatic rapports with other nations, and it's so much easier for them. Afterall they have common bondage, their common socioeconomic level. It is so much more appealing to accept invitation that the poors and paupers join and cooperate to elevate their socioeconomic stature. There is now economic driven harmonious relationship between India and China. They are stressing out the harmonious relationship they had for centuries prior to the border dispute. Pragmatism? worldpress.org The Silk Road from China to Iran will soon reopened for big time tourism industry. The China to India Silk Road will also be opened? These types of bonds are much stronger, more everlasting, more spiritual than the U$Dollar and military diplomacies. Think further to future possibilities. Eurasian economy and Eurasian currency by end of this century?? That's absolutely mind boggling. "For whom the bell tolls?" Equalization of the American continent? Why not? Most grade schools have Spanish language classes, but not French nor German nor Hindi nor Chinese. So you see how we are not prepared to meet the challenge? Are we willing to join? No!, of course NOT!, NEVER! Why? Because we are too great and too wealthy to join those paupers?? Hmmm?!?!?! Namaste, Fred