Who woulda thunk it three months ago. "The Last Hurrah."
Dean Gears Up For a Last Stand In Wisconsin
By Jim VandeHei and Jonathan Finer
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, February 5, 2004; Page A01
Howard Dean is pursuing a last-gasp strategy of winning the Feb. 17 Wisconsin primary, but many Democrats, aides and supporters are privately predicting the end to one of the wildest, most unpredictable and most innovative presidential campaigns of recent times.
On the first anniversary of the initial Internet "Meetup" for Dean supporters, which quickly grew into a revolutionary e-campaign and fundraising machine, the former Vermont governor is pleading with supporters to buy into the unorthodox strategy that he can lose 15 states in a row and still turn his campaign around.
"It's looking pretty dismal, isn't it?" said Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Calif.), a Dean backer.
"It's going to be extraordinarily difficult," said Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-Hawaii), who stays in contact with the campaign. "Unless he wins and shortly, we have to face up to the fact" that a prolonged fight could undercut the larger goal of Dean supporters: beating President Bush. Both Abercrombie and Sanchez commended Dean for toughening the party and vowed to stick with him, at least through Wisconsin.
After spending more than $40 million with no victories to show, Dean failed to meet his own low expectations in the seven states that voted Tuesday. He had hoped to win New Mexico and mop up delegates in other states. Instead, he lost every state, won about half as many votes as retired Army Gen. Wesley K. Clark overall and limped away with seven delegates out of the 269 at stake.
The outlook for this weekend is not much brighter, supporters said, as the race heads to Michigan, where Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.) is poised for a big win based on polls, and Washington.
Rep. Jim McDermott (Wash.), a key Dean supporter, said Dean looks like a "long shot" heading into his state's caucuses, which are dominated by the antiwar liberals the former Vermont governor so inspired early on. "It's getting harder and harder to see how" Dean bounces back without a win before Wisconsin, McDermott said, questioning the viability of the last-stand-in-Cheeseland plan.
Dean said yesterday that he does not expect to carry Michigan, "but I think we'll get some delegates there, and that's what I'm working hard at." He predicted, however, that he will win in Washington, recalling a speech he delivered in the state a year ago during which he questioned why Democrats backed Bush on the war in Iraq, education changes and tax cuts.
"I am still waiting for answers," Dean told an audience in a Seattle hotel ballroom. "The fabric of our society is being torn apart. These are not petty political differences to be papered over by gamesmanship in Washington, D.C. This is a fundamental disagreement about the very nature of what it means to be an American."
Dean is likely to hear the first calls for his withdrawal if his prediction is wrong, several Democrats said. "If he can't break through in Washington, then he has to hang it up," said former representative Tony Coelho (Calif.), chairman of Al Gore's 2000 campaign. "At that point, he won't have any credibility going forward." Coelho, who has not endorsed anyone, said Dean might put at risk his credibility and legacy if he wages a fight that he clearly cannot win.
Dean told reporters on his campaign plane yesterday that "nobody has called me" about withdrawing. But several supporters privately said they will soon approach Dean about dropping out if the weekend goes badly. Dean remained defiant, however, telling a Seattle TV station yesterday that "I'm not bowing out no matter what happens" on Saturday.
Dean has not aired a television ad since New Hampshire and is planning to spend few resources trying to win the other pre-Wisconsin contests, including Virginia and Tennessee on Tuesday.
Conversations among members of Dean's staff have shifted to what they will do after the campaign -- and the options do not involve working in the White House, campaign sources said. Some staffers have been let go in recent days, although those remaining are getting paid after a brief freeze on paychecks. And Dean is losing much of his media entourage: The Associated Press, Bloomberg, Fox News, CNN and others have reassigned their top Dean reporters to cover Kerry, Edwards or Clark.
"Everything looks pretty grim," said Elaine Karmack, a former Gore adviser who has stopped just short of endorsing Dean. "But it is feasible to stage a comeback." Karmack, a Harvard University professor, pointed to the 1980 Democratic race, when President Jimmy Carter jumped to a big early lead only to see Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (Mass.) mount a late -- and eventually unsuccessful -- comeback. But unlike 1980, this year's calendar is packed with early-voting states, which many Democrats believe complicates plans for any candidate banking on late breaks.
None of Dean's 37 congressional supporters has abandoned him, although Kerry's aides are lobbying many of them to join the front-running campaign. A few have privately warned they are about to leave Dean.
Rep. Zoe Lofgren (Calif.), a Dean backer, said the "volatility" of this year's race, combined with Dean's passionate following among younger voters, is keeping the campaign alive.
Dean appears to be holding on to the public backing of his two most powerful supporters: the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees and the Service Employees International Union.
Although several Democrats said officials of the two unions have privately talked of pulling the plug on Dean, SEIU President Andrew Stern said yesterday, "The members of SEIU continue to believe that Howard Dean is the right messenger." Dean talked by phone with leaders of the key unions supporting him and came away convinced they will stick with him through Wisconsin, a top aide said. "We're good to go through Wisconsin," Stern said in an interview.
If Dean loses the unions, "that would be fatal, that would be the end," said Steve Elmendorf, a Kerry adviser with close ties to labor.
Dean on Tuesday and yesterday continued his campaign to win Washington state, where only months ago he attracted a crowd in the thousands at a well-planned event. But on Tuesday, the crowd failed in several attempts to chant his name in unison, the microphone shifted in and out of echo mode, and the candidate sometimes stumbled over a speech he has given hundreds of times.
Dean has said he would not seek to damage the party, although he has shown no signs of tempering his criticism of Kerry and "Washington Democrats" in general. He also said he will not back down until a candidate has a majority of delegates, but several Democrats who have spoken with Dean said he is slowly coming to grips with the reality before him.
"I think that he would be missed, and I wouldn't want what he brought to the campaign to disappear," said Dean supporter Elizabeth Ready, Vermont's state auditor. "But on a personal level, I worry about how he's holding up. It's exhausting, it's thankless, and he's gotten really beaten up."
Finer reported from Seattle. Researcher Lucy Shackelford contributed to this report.
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