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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (45719)	2/8/2004 1:27:50 AM
From: BubbaFred	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

DJ - Some comments I received from an emailed newsletter. Is there a consensus that old Europe expects to be major beneficiary of China's new found wealth? I think it's very likely since even Americans looks highly at Volvo's, Audi's, BMW's, Mercedes, Italian shoes. Even Bushwacko wears Italian shoes. ------------------------------ *Destination: China. Speaking of European exports, the Wall Street Journal says that China will become the region's top trading partner as soon as 2005. I'm sure you already know the remarkable extent of China's economic boom, but this story says that the enormous size of the US trade deficit with China will begin to take it toll soon, leaving Europe in prime position to fill the gap. It quotes opinion from EU policy chiefs who think China's growing demand for imports is likely to spawn a greater interest in European-made goods. DESK OF DENHOLM This just in from Taipan's resident Editor-at-Large, Martin "Keep the Aspidistra Flying" Denholm: US Adding Jobs: By now, I'm sure you know that the US economy added 112,000 jobs in January, sending the unemployment rate down to a two-year low of 5.6%. While this didn't quite match economists' forecasts, which had called for around 150,000 to 165,000 new positions, it's certainly welcome news. Also positive is that both the retail and construction sectors managed to add jobs - in a month when retailers usually shed temporary workers hired over the Christmas period and the weather often hampers construction activity. **German Workers Suffer: Meanwhile, in Germany, unemployment rose 28,000 in January - the first month of job losses since May as the country's retailers endure a miserable period of falling sales. Despite the holidays, sales slipped for the second straight month in December. Nevertheless, the German government still expects growth this year to roll in close to 2%. It can be thankful that exports - which account for a third of annual German GDP - seem to be driving the recovery at the moment, despite the euro's 15% gain against the dollar over the past year. A report out today from the Economics and Labor Ministry says industrial production rose 0.6% in December as the economy continued to churn out goods to keep up with export demand. That gain follows a 0.8% increase in November, defying economists' forecasts for a drop in production. Consumer goods recorded an impressive 3.1% production gain as factory orders witnessed the seventh straight month of growth.

To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (45719)	2/8/2004 8:08:48 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

DJ, What say you about G7 in Florida? I am thinking, perhaps foolishly: (a) The Europeans are not worried about the EURO at current rate (it is only 7% higher than when issued) (b) The Europeans are happy with their economic performance to date (c) The Chinese, not represented at the G7, will do nothing except to repeg to basket some months down the road, months depending on US (presidential candidates' attitude towards Taiwan, N.Korea, et cetera and so on and so forth, just chips to be traded even if the trade has to take place per own interest in every case); and they will continue to spending their Dollars for things and paper (oil/gas fields, Euro, AUD, CAD, etc) (d) The Americans are convinced that a depreciating Dollar is the way to go, in the footsteps of the Japan bubble-foam-fizz cleaners (e) The Japanese are convinced they can print Yen, buy Dollars and invest Dollars in China But I also realize that the truth doesn't matter in the short term and can be interpreted every which way, and so I am not sure of CGE (Currencies, Gold, Energy) market reaction, but I will buy all three should they tank, with borrowed Dollars if necessary. Chugs, Jay