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To: gpowell who wrote (16846)	2/6/2004 3:15:37 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

Again your discussions seem to fall back to something like "it was worse in the xxx period". It was not, of course. There is no worse period for engineers than today in your or my lifetime. The difference between today and past industry shifts is that this time, NEW INDUSTRIES are growing offshore, with the use of US capital. VC is hiring out of india, this has never happened before. There is no parallel to the 70s, 80s or 90s. This economy is not growing at the center, it is contracting, due to the transfer of US wealth to global economies. Only profits are growing, as McKinsey stated. With a consumer based economy this is not a good thing. I watched some of these supply side right wingers predict a Bush blowout re-election and huge jobs creation when the 7% GDP figures first came out. Since I am actually IN this economy and aware of offshoring in practice I knew they were wrong. Then there was the famous Kudlow supply side quote "Xmas 03 is going to be a barnburner for retailers". Another offbase prediction. Before people like you lecture me on how long you have been in business, you need to get some things right. I was right about the non creation of jobs and overstated productivity figures. I suspect I am also right about the mass exodus of supply side theories after November 04. The reason you are pro-supply side, is because you are not in the middle of this huge wealth transfer from US taxpayer dollars to the third world. All this does for the US is create a banana republic.

To: gpowell who wrote (16846)	2/6/2004 5:46:52 PM
From: bentway	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

I think there's a new factor now, a maturing globalization that chases cheap labor around the world. After the manufacturing jobs were "sucked" to Mexico with great success, manufacturers started seeking even cheaper labor, finding it in China, by now not politically scary. Over 500 maquiadoras have been closed and moved to China. With the success in outsourcing manufacturing, corporations began outsourcing service jobs to India and China. Job losses in the US will put downward pressure on ALL salaries here. The only thing I see that might turn this around is war or violent social unrest in the beneficiary countries that disrupts the corporations doing business there. As for China and India needing us as customers, I can see us being phased out as they develop their own wealthy and middle classes. It won't happen overnight, but I'm banking on the growth being in India and China. All one needs to do is look at the gains the portfolios of those two regions as documented on SI threads.