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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (7696)	2/11/2004 2:09:51 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

If the US$ keeps sinking Europe will have to cut if they want to stop it. Euro close to all time high here. Another 75 BPs will do it. M

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (7696)	2/11/2004 2:27:05 PM
From: gregor_us	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

JWCB: The Asian Credit Supply and the Western Consumer. I had a long conversation the other night with a friend and we both tried to figure out what it will take to "end" the daily support of the USD and our Treasuries by Asia. My friend recognizes its a house of cards but thinks the arrangement will go on a lot longer than people anticipate. I gave, and give no time horizon as to how long it will go on. However, I do feel that the "trigger" for the end will come when the Western Consumer begins to "underperform" and reduces purchases. Initially, I wonder that the Asian Credit Supply Scheme will respond to Consumer Underperformance in the same way Greenspan has: they will simply turn up the crank higher, to see if they can revive the Corpse. But eventually they will grow tired of expending so much, for so little in return. The relationship feels very much like one between the addict and the drug dealer. I have no idea when the arrangement ends...but these relationships never end well.