Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Christopher Loe who wrote (7726)	2/13/2004 10:52:41 AM
From: isopatch	Respond to of 108784

Chris. Cool. I think diversity is important on a thread. And, appreciate the clarity and economy with which you express your views. One of the least helpful tendencies I see on a lot of other web discussion forums is the tendency to develop a herd mentality around a certain trading style, single sector focus or market outlook. We don't have that here. And I'm very pleased to be able to say so. Rock on, Isopatch

To: Christopher Loe who wrote (7726)	2/13/2004 12:30:54 PM
From: austrieconomist	Respond to of 108784

Christopher, an alternative theory. We are in a pause in the commodity plays because the money supply as measured by MZM was down below an 8% annualized rate a year ago. I believe based upon interocular surveys over 30 years that the lag in money supply and commodity prices is about a year. This ties in with the just under 30% annualized growth in the CRB Index for the 14 month period December, 2001 to January, 2003 (for the prior 14 month period of annualized MZM growth of 20%+ from December, 2000 through January, 2002). futures.tradingcharts.com The gains in the CRB Index since the January, 2003 peak are only 4% or 3.6% annualized to February. There was a good pop in April to August, 2003 that annualized 12%+ but the money supply started dropping precipitously in mid-August, 2003. I'm looking for pre-election trouble, particularly in the commodity based plays. research.stlouisfed.org

To: Christopher Loe who wrote (7726)	2/13/2004 12:53:43 PM
From: schzammm	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 108784

Chris, my short positions are insurance for a % of my portfolio. Granted I have over this last week been selling off some of my general portfolio. But overall I have been in a net long position. IMHO I have a short presence because I do not believe the general market has any "event" discount priced into it. And I believe that there is always some "event" risk and currently more than normal. But you bring up an issue that I recently am having difficultly grasping. You said you hold NXG for insurance but also because it is undervalued. Maybe it is just me but lately when the general market drops my PM stocks also drop. Maybe this is because when the dollar rises the market has been dropping and so gold also. But I am beginning to question whether PMs are a hedge for a general market drop. Comments??