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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jules B. Garfunkel who wrote (177033)	2/13/2004 1:17:18 PM
From: GVTucker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Jules, RE: I know that BofA reduced Q1-04 estimates for INTC by $.02 today, but can you tell me what is dragging Intel down. Since the day before Q4 earnings release, when INTC was trading at $34, the company has announced; -Better than expected Earnings -Better than expected Revenues -Better than expected Margins Better than consensus as defined by First Call does not necessarily mean better than expected. A stock discounts an expected number which is not always the number that is officially reported by Wall Street analysts.

To: Jules B. Garfunkel who wrote (177033)	2/13/2004 1:18:45 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

My guess is that there are two issues today. One is consumer sentiment and trade deficit issues again, this has affected the entire market. The other is a WSJ article by Don Clark which is nothing new. These in addition to the BofA report that you seem to have there, which talks about lower than expected laptop demand. Consumer Sentiments Drags Down Stocks preliminary reading of consumer sentiment tumbled to 93.1 in February from January's final reading of 103.8, its highest level in over three years. Economists had forecast a reading of 103.3. Another report showed the U.S. trade deficit widened nearly 11 percent in December, as strong U.S. economic growth sucked in record imports and exports inched lower despite a weaker dollar. Next the WSJ article, AMD's Opteron Chip Puts Pressure on Rival Intel Intel officials aren't likely to give AMD much credit. Yet there is little dispute that AMD, of Sunnyvale, Calif., is putting pressure on the world's biggest chip maker, and helping to raise more doubts about a microprocessor line called Itanium that Intel, based in Santa Clara, Calif., has nurtured for 10 years. Several big companies, including International Business Machines Corp., Armonk, N.Y., and Sun Microsystems Inc., Santa Clara, have adopted an AMD chip called Opteron to make server systems. Even Hewlett-Packard Co., Palo Alto, Calif., which helped develop Itanium and plans to unify several computer lines around it, now is expected to add Opteron-based servers to its product line. Message 19804625 Just generally speaking I am not expecting much from Intel here, though. Chipmakers are selling a lot to asia but ASPs are too low, and the capex recovery in the US is probably never coming back to the degree that it once existed. Its not just intel, chip stocks just aren't moving. I wonder if the laptop demand problem is really just more ASP price erosion. Intel is just too expensive imho.

To: Jules B. Garfunkel who wrote (177033)	2/13/2004 4:00:41 PM
From: greg s	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Hello Jules, I certainly remember you and am glad to see you back here. To answer your question simply, look at the general market over the last while. IMO, Intel (and most stocks) are being driven more by more general macro trends (uncertainty of consumer sentiment, Fed interest rates, political uncertainty, hangover (still) from the 'big bust") than by FA. I do believe there's some gain to be seen by Intel and other firms being held down further out in 2004. How much, I am not sure. Just my $0.02. Take care, greg.

To: Jules B. Garfunkel who wrote (177033)	2/23/2004 9:10:58 AM
From: Amy J	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Jules, RE: "What's going on here? Where are the good analysts not to recognize the above? I would like to know who's manipulating the stock price? and why?" Good to see you posting. Here's some of my thoughts on the analyst's report... Maybe it's another Tantilum Capacitor story, where the analyst (JJohnson) made the right call in a huge way. Shortly after JJ's precise call, Intel tumbled and over time dropped by 80% from its high. Possibly we all learned to carefully consider an analyst's opinion. To value asking questions, rather than dismissing an opinion, and to do deeper diligence. Possibly that can save a lot of people a lot of money. I appreciate information and think we'd all value by considering it. I looked at the analyst's report in question and noticed two things. He believes this is a good time to pick up INTC for the long-term. His report doesn't appear to be inconsistent with other market news. January is the Chinese New Year. Sort of like Europe's vacation time. As soon as the New Year ended, one of the largest USA manufacturers in China appeared to be seeking out headcount. I imagine they are swamped trying to catch up after the holidays. But it's good to keep an eye on this and see if the noted pause turns into something longer, or if it was simply a pause due to the holiday. Let's not dismiss any indicator of any direction, otherwise that may cost us threadsters in either missed opportunities or losses, depending upon the direction of the swing. My personal opinion is that it was a pause due to the holidays and that the cycle is heading up over the long-term. I agree with the analyst's call - his report indicated he thought INTC was a good buy for the long-term. Regards, Amy J