Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (13358)	2/15/2004 9:11:07 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95761

Kirk, As you say, <<By the time fundamentals tell us something, it is probably too late.>> I think it definitely is too late. Of course, I think we knew this before, but I believe it is being instilled in us once again. I just saw a very interesting post on the AMAT thread. Message 19810461 In this report by Goldman Sachs, the following statement is made: <<Even with more linear order growth patterns, report likely to highlight that the industry is likely to see only* two more quarters of meaningful order growth.>>* The key here is they are predicting only 2 more quarters of "meaningful" order growth. That happens to be the same that CSFB is predicting in its most recent report. Furthermore, and most importantly, CSFB goes to great lengths providing analysis of the past 4 or 5 cycles to show that share prices peak 1 to 2 quarters before order input peaks. What does this all mean? I think it means that the brokers, institutions, and mutual funds have been "backing off" on their buying in this sector, and in fact, probably trying to off load some of their shares while the selling is good. They think that "this order input cycle" is over, in terms of higher share prices, and they are going to retrench and wait for the next cycle. The "sweet spot" for buying this sector started in March of last year(or arguably Oct 2002) and lasted to Oct/Nov. Since that time, gains, if any, have been small for the most part, at the bottom line, as the recently posted tables have shown. There has been rotation in the sector for the individual stocks, but the group has barely moved for the past 3 and 1/2 months. The table below shows the run from March to November(~8 months) and from Nov to now(3 and 1/2 months) - 3/12/03 11/3/03 2/13/04 2/13-11/3 2/13-3/12 - CLOSE CLOSE PCT CLOSE PCT PCT SYMBOL PRICE PRICE CHANGE PRICE CHANGE CHANGE AMAT* 11.75 24.56 109 21.77 -11 85 ASML 6.42 18.37 186 19.52 6 204 ASYT 5.69 20.14 254 10.91 -46 92 ATMI 17.29 24.68 43 28.02 14 62 BRKS 8.90 26.78 201 22.00 -18 147 CMOS 6.61 16.78 154 12.75 -24 93 COHU 13.40 20.97 56 20.26 -3 51 CYMI 25.85 48.64 88 42.03 -14 63 DPMI 18.69 24.19 29 22.30 -8 19 EGLS 1.09 3.77 246 5.94 58 445 FSII 2.62 6.31 141 8.47 34 223 HELX 8.39 18.80 124 25.82 37 208 KLAC* 33.59 59.19 76 54.34 -8 62 KLIC 4.46 15.44 246 14.29 -7 220 LRCX 11.84 29.79 152 27.43 -8 132 LTXX 4.89 15.00 207 16.80 12 244 MTSN 2.04 14.98 634 12.10 -19 493 NVLS* 25.98 43.94 69 33.26 -24 28 PHTN 16.45 39.35 139 35.36 -10 115 PLAB 10.80 22.07 104 19.63 -11 82 SMTL 4.50 9.85 119 13.10 33 191 TER* 11.18 24.24 117 25.82 7 131 UTEK 10.94 34.54 216 25.55 -26 134 VECO 15.02 26.39 76 32.00 21 113 WFR 9.15 11.86 30 9.92 -16 8 TOTALS 287.54 600.63 109 559.39 -7 95 SOX-X 287.45 515.77 79 510.57 -1 78 COMPQX1279.24 1967.70 54 2053.56 4 61 * STOCKS INCLUDED IN SOX INDEX