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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (13360)	2/15/2004 9:34:08 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 95761

This is a follow on post to the previous one detailing the same table for the SOX as for the Group. The general situation is the same. - 3/12/03 11/3/03 2/13/04 2/13-11/3 2/13-3/12 - CLOSE CLOSE PCT CLOSE PCT PCT SYMBOL PRICE PRICE CHANGE PRICE CHANGE CHANGE ALTR 12.56 21.30 70 22.33 5 78 AMAT* 11.75 24.56 109 21.77 -11 85 AMD 5.52 15.93 189 14.94 -6 171 BRCM 14.73 33.66 129 38.63 15 162 INTC 16.20 34.04 110 30.14 -11 86 KLAC* 33.59 59.19 76 54.34 -8 62 LLTC 29.69 43.80 48 42.25 -4 42 LSI 4.15 9.49 129 10.51 11 153 MOT 8.04 13.84 72 17.22 24 114 MU 7.74 14.75 91 15.73 7 103 MXIM 34.45 50.06 45 52.79 5 53 NSM 17.07 42.82 151 38.95 -9 128 NVLS* 25.98 43.94 69 33.26 -24 28 STM 17.55 27.22 55 26.69 -2 52 TER* 11.18 24.24 117 25.82 7 131 TSM 6.64 11.47 73 10.63 -7 60 TXN 16.69 29.93 79 30.77 3 84 XLNX 23.35 33.30 43 41.51 25 78 TOTALS 296.88 533.54 80 528.28 -1 78 SOX-X 287.45 515.77 80 510.57 -1 78 COMPQX1279.24 1967.70 54 2053.56 4 61 *In Semi-Equip Group

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (13360)	2/15/2004 9:50:58 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95761

I have to say that the analyst speak doesn't make sense to me. I also just read the AMAT thread and I side with Cary on this issue. I'm not sure how analysts view the market but getting sequential order growth in the 20s and 30s percentage ranges is absolutely incredible growth. Even from the bottom of the order cycle, this type of sequential order growth is completely unsustainable and for the analysts to "cry" about only 2 more quarters of "meaningful" growth is the biggest bunch of crap I've read in a very long time. I would have a little more respect if these guys and gals stated that the order growth being seen now is stratospheric and that the SCE industry would be the best stock bets in town if they could achieve 5% sequential order growth for the next 3 or 4 years. The compounding alone would make many of these companies about 1 to 5 times the size they are currently (based on some companies getting more of the business then others). Your PEG lists need to be taken with caution, since they imply expected earnings and expected growth rates which have yet to be substantiated. But if the SCE industry can see anything near the growth that CSFB is putting out, then I just can't see how anyone will miss out by putting money into the likes of AMAT. Sure, there may be a better entry point, given the gyrations of the market, but getting a 1 PEG out of AMAT who's order growth may stabilize at much higher revenue run rates looks like a winning bet to this observer.