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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (8199)	2/22/2004 2:46:53 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 110194

Wanted to get your input on LEND. I listened to their late Jan CC, and it's bad model IMO. Margin on selling their subprime loans is falling off, so they are retaining loans. There is only a 1% loan loss provision, and they already have a 1.8% delinquency, and half their $3.4 B portfolio was originated in 03. They've insured and are on the line for the ABS loans they've securitized. Looks ugly, a debt to equity of 16-1, a highly leveraged junk mortgage hedge fund. I've been waiting for this to rollover rather than trying to pick a top to short. We got a big surge of down volume after their report in late Jan. Since then it's put in a bear flag, which is now breaking down, closed below 50 MA on Friday. Money flow is nose diving. Just went off the IBD 100 mo-mo list. stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b50][vc60][iUb14!Lc20]&pref=G The IPO came in mid-Feb of last year at $8, so there is a big group of folks who just went LT cap gain, and that should weigh on it. Short interest was a high 12.2% on Jan. 8th, but I would imagine many of those were squeezed in the Bernanke-Greenspan party on, rip the toilets off the wall rally in January. New SI will be out this week.