Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (13381)	2/16/2004 7:30:32 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95658

...what if potential investors use btb instead? Then they will likely sell at the wrong time or fail to invest in a company that will give them nice returns. At some point in the process, the stocks will get too cheap or the investment community will recognize, that despite their fears, the sector is a good place to park some money. We are in a tough spot for those who don't have any money in this sector. After 100%+ returns last year, it's very difficult to justify buying now but the numbers may prove, eventually, that now is not a bad time to be invested here. Maybe right this moment isn't the time to buy? Maybe, we should let the index and the associated stocks fall substantially before placing new bets? If you still have stock that was purchased last March, you are probably in no hurry to add. I must add that 100% returns sound impressive but what if net 300% to 500% returns are possible? What if MTSN is going to double from here after the huge return it made last year? What if AMAT is going to triple from here over the next 2 years? Let's take AMAT and round up the percentages just for this post. AMAT's up 100% from 11 to 22. Let's use $1 eps for next year and 50 cents for this year. Right now, AMAT has a 44 PE but it might see a 100% gain on the bottom line next year. What's fair value? We can say that next year is one year closer to the cycle peak, so maybe 44 PE isn't justified? Conversely, what if the cycle peak will be in 2006 or 2007 like Cary suggests and AMAT has 3 more years of solid earnings growth ahead of them? What if AMAT can earn $1.50 in 2006 and $2.00 in 2007? Should a 33% growth rate x $1.50 in earnings = $50 stock? Or 20 PE on $2 peak earnings =$40 stock. Can you wait a year and a half for AMAT to reach $40 or $50? If so, then right now might be a great time to buy AMAT. Ok, so you decide to buy some tomorrow and AMAT drops to $16 after earnings but forward EPS estimates stay the same or improve. Do you buy more? I can't invest for others but I can answer many of the questions raised in the above post by saying: Yes...I think AMAT is worth buying now or at $16 if they can reach close to $1 eps in 2005. What if they can reach EPS of $1.80 to $2.00 in 2007? Again, I'll ask, what's fair value right now? But wait! DON'T TOUCH THAT DIAL! What if we throw in a year's subscription to the WSEA thread? Now how much would you pay for AMAT? Hey...and that's not all. If you are one of the first 30 investors to buy AMAT on Tuesday after reading this post, we'll throw in a special, one time offer that you simply can't resist!!! Curious? I bet you are...call your broker today! <vbg> FULL DISCLOSURE: For the interest of those reading, I don't own any AMAT or have any affiliation with the company or any investment house, brokerage, or fund... in other words, in my opinion only. dyor... etc. But that shouldn't imply that I won't be one of the first 30 investors to buy on Tuesday! lol