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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (13382)	2/16/2004 9:42:41 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95657

This week the monthly SEMI report is due out on Feb 19th that will give Bookings, Billings, and BtB for the semi-equips for North America companies. Portions of this report have usually been given on this thread including the report itself, tabular data from the reports and then Gottfried generates his charts and shares the results on his web site with the rest of us. The last report posted was for the month of December 2003. Data exists in this format starting with the calendar year of 1995. That means 9 years of monthly data is available. For me personally, the Bookings data is by far the most important. From Bookings eventually comes Billings, and rising Bookings means the industry is in the expansion mode. For this reason I have put the Bookings data in a table that shows the data since it began in 1995. The table is "split in two" in an over/under format for easier viewing. - Bookings - YR YR YR YR YR - 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Month (M) (M) (M) (M) (M) JAN 892 1607 1116 1363 997 FEB 995 1687 1101 1233 1029 MAR 1119 1447 1265 1123 1257 APR 1180 1361 1386 1102 1405 MAY 1140 1187 1421 1107 1514 JUN 1192 1175 1474 933 1561 JUL 1124 992 1659 718 1531 AUG 1102 882 1688 572 1565 SEP 1132 778 1774 481 1511 OCT 1209 833 1835 638 1610 NOV 1295 952 1599 767 1695 DEC 1499 1078 1550 883 1908 TOTAL 13880 13979 17868 10920 17581 YR/AVE 1157 1165 1489 910 1465 O/U/AVE -120 -111 213 -366 189 PCT/AVE -9 -9 17 -29 15 - YR YR YR YR - 2000 2001 2002 2003 TOTAL Month (M) (M) (M) (M) (M) JAN 2227 1854 645 739 11440 FEB 2302 1611 737 761 11455 MAR 2547 1197 836 777 11568 APR 2716 721 996 757 11624 MAY 2778 723 1105 724 11700 JUN 2859 731 1171 722 11818 JUL 2902 769 1182 707 11583 AUG 2984 715 1017 732 11256 SEP 2888 614 832 779 10788 OCT 2993 644 775 871 11408 NOV 2707 609 777 923 11324 DEC 2372 652 827 1100 11870 TOTAL 32274 10841 10899 9592 137833 YR/AVE 2689 903 908 799 1276 O/U/AVE 1413 -373 -368 -477 PCT/AVE 111 -29 -29 -37 The table for the most part speaks for itself, but let me point out a couple of things. There is 9 years of data here. The last column shows the total for each month and and the total for the 9 years of 137B+. The 9 year average is the next number down at 1276M. Move 1 column to the left and note that the total expenditure for 2003 was 9592M, the lowest value for the nine year period, and the average monthly Booking was 799M. The next to last row shows the yearly over or under amount of Bookings for the year compared to the 9 year average of 1276M. The last row shows the percent of over or under Bookings for the year compared to the average of 1276M. I think what many of the "Analysts" are missing is the tremendous loss of Bookings of the past many months, and years, compared to the averages. If this is any kind of a normal cycle, it should "stretch" for many months or years yet to make up for the recent past under investment. Don