Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (163)	2/17/2004 10:16:42 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

economic weakness is actually a sine qua non for a trend change in the dollar's external value. Here are Plunger's comments to the above from Heinz: The theory usually expounded is that a recession decreases import demand whilst exports carry on as before, thereby balancing the external account. However FX markets often have a mind of their own and concentrate on something else. In a recession, interest rates would be very low, so maybe the USD would keep on being sold. Or the Stephen Roach theory that the US is too big to have a recession yet keep exporting. The US would cause the whole world to go into recession, and Japan, a capex based exporting machine, would have a huge problem. Err ... the Nikkei isn't doing too well, is it ... and what was it the ABC said about the confidence drop we just got "such a fall has always preceded a recession" ... I'd like to buy the number of times the R word and the D word start appearing in the press. Any sellers? Plunger.