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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: amoezzi who wrote (18706)	2/19/2004 3:40:53 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78517

Amoezzi - re TCN, TSU and TND TSU and TND are "twins" very similar balance sheets, valuation and prospects and balance sheet quality. I am sticking with TSU because of its slightly higher growth and better liquidity. The stocks are closely correlated which may come in handy - if TSU turns south (more) I may just take the ST loss and switch to TND for tax reasons. TCN is cheaper per P/S number than both TND and TSU but it has much weaker fundamentals in terms of balance sheet (debt) and earnings. So TND and TSU are more conservative and TCN is more speculative, IMO. the issue that I have with TCN is that their balance sheet is still weak even though its improving. TCN is FCF positive but only because they are not investing - they continue to operate the outdate TDMA network while competitors are upgrading to CDMA and GSM rapidly. this is the reason why TCN is loosing market share. If TCN starts to upgrade to GSM or CDMA their FCF will turn negative unless they can improve their profit margin considerably. I do note that yahoo has a forward P/E of 8 for TCN but I do not know what this estimate is based upon, it looks very optimistic to me. They are fighting against better capitalized competitors with better networks and are loosing market share, that's the reason why they are so cheap. If they can continue to turn around the stock should outperform TSU and TND, if fundamentals turn for the worse, they will be a marginal player operating with outdated hardware. But sure the TCN's chart looks better, especially today. FWIW, I added to my entry position in TSU today.