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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (8481)	2/23/2004 1:10:40 PM
From: Steve Lokness	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Yes, barf IS the appropriate response. I originally agreed with those who suggested Greenspan was a sycophant - now I believe he is either senile or very scared as to what lies ahead. As to your comments that inflated commodity prices are not that important - I respectfully disagree. When I recently bid a water system building, OSB a very large product in most buildings was pushing 20 bucks a sheet (someone posted the inflation in lumber this morning). Compared this to the cost in a similar building of slightly more than a year ago when OSB was 5 plus change a sheet and I promise this gets passed on. There is no way to absorb that kind of price change which then is reflected in the average price of home increases. The median price last month in California was 404,000!!! The rubber band gets stretched tighter and tighter - I just am not sure which way it shakes out. One thing is for sure though - when the housing (mortgage) bubble pops, all those other "secondary" products such as autos be in the toilet. Housing is the one to watch - not auto or refrigerators! natvik