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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (8556)	2/24/2004 1:42:53 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Tue Feb 24 2004 13:26 trotsky (@renminbi/yuan) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved China has lost over 30 million manufacturing jobs over the past 10 years...i fear it is not going to agree with Mr. Snow that 'currency flexibility' is in its interest. note btw. that everybody was mightily relieved during the Asian crisis of '97-'98 that China, alone among all Asian nations, held the line and did NOT devalue. thus, trying to enforce 'flexibility' NOW that Asian currencies are generally looking strong, might have unintended consequences down the road. i.e. when the next currency crisis hits, China might then well say, 'sorry, but you know how it is better for all concerned if we're flexible...' Date: Tue Feb 24 2004 11:56 trotsky (Wooly, 10:16) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "Anybody figure out YET....COMPETITIVE DEVALUTATION means... INFLATION in all goods" not so - competitive devaluations are actually a hallmark of deflationary eras. the last global scramble to enact 'beggar thy neighbor' currency policies was in the deflationary 1930's. Date: Tue Feb 24 2004 11:53 trotsky (anecdotal sentiment data) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved i don't have a 'scientific' data set to 'prove' this, but from a survey of anecdotal sentiment, it seems like EVERYBODY is suddenly expecting a big dollar rally. true, the market was extremely short going into this recent bounce - but i note again that currency trends are the most INERT trends known to speculating man. i.e., they tend to produce only very small counter-trend moves in corrections, and the trends tend to stay very strong in whatever direction they're going. i'm not sure what today's denouement will do to this sudden bout of dollar bullishness, but in all likelihood the sentiment change was a tad premature. note btw. that the dollar's fundamentals have continued to deteriorate - no let-up yet in the current account debacle for instance, and historically, the dollar tends to fall UNTIL it is back in balance. Date: Tue Feb 24 2004 11:31 trotsky (consumer 'confidence') ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved is the consumer recession beginning? or has it already begun? nasty surprise in store for the polyannas...all that monetary pumping will have been for naught... Date: Tue Feb 24 2004 11:25 trotsky (bond market) ID#377387: massive short squeeze imminent? we're threatening very important resistance levels... Date: Tue Feb 24 2004 11:22 trotsky (more...) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "In fact, Greenspan dismissed the record breaking bankruptcies, saying instead that falling interest rates have decreased consumer debt burdens, while the rise in house and stock prices have provided a cushion to savings short consumers. " this is beyond belief - that's supposed to be a sober 'analysis'?? i.e., the only reason the consumer isn't carried out feet first just YET, is because we've temporarily stoked/revived a few asset bubbles?? and thus, we 'should not worry' about records in bankruptcies and mortgage delinquencies? i'm surprised the assembled pork-shovelers weren't left speechless at that point.. Date: Tue Feb 24 2004 11:18 trotsky (essentially) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved Greenspan is saying that those 'excellent risk managers' at Fannie are going to f*ck up big time one day, and he wants YOU to pay up when that happens ( i.e., the US tax payer ) . iow, he's openly coming out with what we should know ever since the Fed was founded: the banksters want to privatize only their profits - their risk must of course be socialized. iow, they're not going to PAY YOU for providing the ultimate insurance. you're the only one that ends up paying. sucker. Date: Tue Feb 24 2004 11:14 trotsky (Greenspan) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved he basically admitted today that a debt crisis will be unavoidable at some point in the future - he's urging Congress to make the government's backing of GSE debt 'official' to remove all doubt as to the coming mother of all bail-outs when it becomes 'necessary'. oh yes, they are 'excellent risk managers', but dontcha know, 'it's not all under their control' - you can say that again. Date: Tue Feb 24 2004 11:02 trotsky (frustrated, 8:59) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "LONDON, Feb 24 ( Reuters ) - Most investors at a bond conference in London on Tuesday said they expected euro zone and U.S. interest rates to be higher in 12 months' time. " that's what 'most investors' are expecting since when exactly? of course what most are expecting never tends to happen - more confirmation that interest rates will continue to fall.