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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (8557)	2/24/2004 11:47:14 AM
From: TheSlowLane	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

mish - As far as getting your ass handed to you (or me, as the case may be), I suppose that's possible if one is not using any risk management, money management or not changing strategy regardless of what the market is doing - which I would not recommend. Using a pretty small portion of the entire PF for RYJUX, so I might have a small portion of the left cheek handed to me but certainly not the entire buttocks. RYJUX will not make you rich or put you in the poorhouse very fast, it's just a small hedge: bigcharts.marketwatch.com

To: mishedlo who wrote (8557)	2/24/2004 11:51:17 AM
From: Silver Super Bull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Mish, RE: "I think you will get your ass handed to you." One of my main questions is how long this foreign buying of the USD will, and can, last. The equivalent of tens/hundreds of billions of dollars are being thrown at supporting the USD, yet it is obvious that this is having little effect. IMHO the effect on interest rates would be profound if this support were to end. I just can't see how any entity can afford to endlessly spend the equivalent of billions of dollars and get nothing in return...

To: mishedlo who wrote (8557)	2/24/2004 11:55:49 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

I've actually looked at naked call writes on FVX, but they don't really appear to trade, and there is no open interest in anything. Is this the right market? quote.cboe.com The other strategy is just go with writing them on something like CFC, which will be impacted as well. Of course there you get a side benefit that even you are looking for: worsening credit conditions. In the Lehman instruments, you get nailed on the accruing interest, so that's not such a hot deal. The Eurodollar market is the best trading and most liquid, but of course that's more dependent on the Fed taking some responsibility to actually act against the inflation. I now think the market will act first, and in the outer years that the Fed doesn't control. The BOJ does control that market however, and one scenario would be that they (not the Fed) start reacting to an inflation breakout throughout Asia (including Japan, and yes I did say JAPAN) by curtailing their excessive printing press operation used to buy USTs and agencies.

To: mishedlo who wrote (8557)	2/24/2004 12:34:57 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 110194

I think any rout comes on the longdated bond securities while CB's support the USDollar and buy the short end the prospect of higher cost of living, and erosion to money sitting around would come years down the road, which means longdateds however, a recession is coming soon, like next year it will be powerful, deep, longlasting, and seem unfixable since all pentup demand is exhausted money will come out of stocks and into safe havens the big question is whether the USDollar will destroy the typical rotational path from stocks to bonds / jim