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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gregor_us who wrote (699)	2/26/2004 9:23:26 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

EUR crash, LOL, there are so many hedgie lemmings gonna be hung out to dry here. i hope they pull gold and the Oceania currencies down so more. thematically, the anti-USD play is nice, but it has gone way too far and gotten way too speculative. there needs to be damage done to these lemmings, after which i will dump my USTs and reload in non-USD.

To: gregor_us who wrote (699)	2/26/2004 10:09:22 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Mr Schröder goes to Washington economist.com Indeed, trade plays as big a part as geopolitics in the continued strains in transatlantic relations. Hormone-treated beef remains contentious: after the EU banned imports of such beef from America, Washington retaliated by slapping $120m in punitive duties on EU goods. The EU has also fought off Mr Bush’s tariffs on imported steel, which were repealed in December after the World Trade Organisation deemed them illegal. On March 1st, the EU will begin punishing America for failing to repeal a set of tax breaks for exporters that were also ruled incompatible with WTO principles. The punishment will start with a rap on the knuckles: a 5% duty on a range of American exports to the EU; for each month the tax breaks remain on the books, the penalties will stiffen, rising to a 17% duty by 2005. America’s “anti-dumping” regime too is under fire. On Tuesday, the WTO upheld the EU’s case against a 1916 law that allows American firms to sue for compensation from foreign rivals that sell below cost. The EU is also awaiting permission to retaliate against the so-called “Byrd amendment”, which distributes the proceeds from anti-dumping duties to dumped-on American industries. None of this has gone down well in America, where trade has become a hot election-year issue. On top of this, the Bush administration moans that the European economy is too weak and restrained, contributing too little to global recovery; while the Europeans complain that America’s economic over-indulgence (tax cuts, vast deficits, low savings rate) is creating dangerous imbalances. The Europeans see America's neglect of the waning dollar as a threat to the euro area's nascent recovery. On Wednesday, Mr Schröder called upon the European Central Bank to “deal with” the euro's strength “most intensively”. He is expected to raise the question of the euro-dollar exchange rate with Mr Bush.

To: gregor_us who wrote (699)	2/26/2004 10:11:19 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Durable goods orders log surprise drop in January WASHINGTON (Reuters) — Orders for durable manufactured goods dropped unexpectedly in January as demand for aircraft and cars fell sharply, a government report showed on Thursday. Orders for durable goods — items meant to last three years or more — slid 1.8% last month after an upwardly revised gain of 1.6% in December, the Commerce Department said. In a second report, the Labor Department said first-time claims for state unemployment insurance benefits rose to 350,000 the week ended Feb. 21, up 6,000 from an unrevised 344,000 the prior week. January's durable goods orders overall were much weaker than expected. Economists were looking for a 1.4% rise after a previously reported 0.3% December increase. While the upward revision to December was likely to take some of the sting out of the often-volatile report, the volume of orders last month still stood below November's level. A 10.4% plunge in orders for transportation equipment — largest decline since September 2002 — accounted for much of the weakness in January's orders. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders were up a solid 2%. Demand for motor vehicles dropped 5.1%, while orders for civilian aircraft plummeted 27.9% and orders for defense aircraft fell 34%. The otherwise weak report offered some good news on business investment spending. Non-defense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft — which are seen as a proxy for future business spending — rose 3.6% last month after a 3.8% gain in December. A collapse in business investment pulled the U.S. economy into recession in 2001 and capital spending remained weak through much of the ensuing lethargic recovery. But last year, investment spending began to rebound smartly, helping broaden the range of the previously narrow recovery and offering hope for a sustainable expansion. After two years of decline, U.S. factories raised output marginally last year but they have yet to generate jobs. U.S. manufacturers have shed workers in each of the last 42 months, although the pace of job loss has slowed recently. In all, 3 million factory jobs have been lost since their most recent peak in July 2000. On the jobless claims report, economists had expected claims to tick higher to 348,000. The closely watched four-week moving average of initial jobless claims, which irons out weekly fluctuations, rose to 354,750 from 352,000 the prior week. The rise was the fourth weekly gain and brought that measure to its highest level since 355,750 in the week ended Dec. 27, 2003. The number of people continuing to draw a week of benefits dropped 62,000 to 3.10 million the week ended Feb. 14, latest week for which the continued claims data are available, after rising 83,000 the week before. A more comprehensive picture of the job market is likely to emerge with Labor's February employment situation report, scheduled for release March 5. usatoday.com

To: gregor_us who wrote (699)	2/26/2004 10:25:14 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Free Money They are still giving away free money. Dec 98.50 Euribor puts were going for 11 points today. That looked like Free Money so I picked up some. Also got 14 points for converting Dec 98.75 calls into 97.75/98 bull spreads. Paid 16 of the calls a month ago or so Got 14 today for the sale of the next highest strike. Near risk free trade on a spread that is now ITM. Mish