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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (8890)	2/27/2004 11:26:48 PM
From: rubed	Respond to of 110194

Agreed. Short-term bad, long-term good. All we really need is central banking and fiat money to be discredited after all. rube

To: mishedlo who wrote (8890)	2/28/2004 9:03:36 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

<IMO - NO - Not initially Russ and I would both agree (I think) long term yes.> This is a tough call. Gold seems to be linked as a surrogate for the Euro right now. But a European rate cut will delink that relationship and I think it would happen fast. POG could just head straight up once it happens, but you should also prepare for a head fake down. If we got a down head fake off of a European rate cut, you might have about one or two days, and maybe even a half day to get the last great entry point on gold. As you know, I don't think a European rate cut will happen on the cusp of a great inflationary resurgence, but we are living in incredible times, and anything can happen. I would NOT sell gold now in anticipation of a Euro rate cut. The problem that gold has short term IMO has more to do with it's ownership by stale spec longs, than with the Euro debate. The true risk to gold would be a series of surprise rate increases (a distinct possibility IMO) out of nearly everybody. The CBs (US?) that failed to act would be quickly ravaged by inflation. In the last scenario, there would be a mad scamble (Flucht in die Sachwerte, that word again, write it on the chalk board, a hundred times) to any asset with real value.