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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: loantech who wrote (8908)	2/28/2004 9:54:13 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Tom, I think NXG is an OK speculation with the caveats I've been mentioning. I was reviewing it just this week, operationally doing great, doesn't seem overpriced. We just have to remember that we are no longer in the liftoff glory days of 2000-2002, when these commodity plays were gifts. Remember back in 2001, when the big discussion on my PM board was "commodity deflation?" This post also offers clear clues on why we have a train wreck today, doesn't it?; Message 16579803 The point I'm making is that was the great offside trade of that day. When I use the term "offside" I mean the bets the market was making were seriously mistaken. Then it was commodity deflation and lo and behold, today it's anything but that. Even idiots now know we have serious commodity inflation, so it's no revelation. The only offside theory I can come up with on commodities, is that some think it's (the inflation) temporary or benign. I don't think it's benign at all, but the temporary part could be true if we have a world wide economic collapse coming from bottlenecks and inflation (the Train Wreck). That makes commodity stock betting a much riskier proposition than it was when we were buying FGX, MFL, MNG, WTZ, CBD, and AGI for ten cents on the dollar. Remember when I was saying write "ten bagger" on the chalk board a hundred times? Those days are over. That said, a play like NXG, may offer a fine trading opportunity in this environment, especially if misheldo's prediction about more rate cuts come true. But I think the great offside trade today is something else? It's quiz time for you now: what would it be?