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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (8914)	2/28/2004 2:54:19 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

electrical generation is already classified as mfg so is gasoline refinery and chemical production when you get serious, our GDP is not 19-21% mfg it is more like about 4-5% / jim

To: mishedlo who wrote (8914)	2/29/2004 11:58:00 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Mish, if you haven't figured out the major cause of this Train Wreck by now(easy money, excessive US consumer demand combined with serious shortages) you never will, so I'm only going to address (for the benefit of the other readers) the worst part of the typical misinformation you like to post here. I have to tell you though this is tedious, not very fair to me, or anybody else who lurks or participates here. <1) Rising inventories 2) Chicago PMI near all time high and inventories rising. Where is it going from here?> Wrong, business inventories are near historic lows. I'll bet with these bottlenecks and shortages it's getting rapidly worse too. Key sentence: "The inventory to sales ratio was at a historical low at 1.34 for December." btmna.com And wholesale inventory are severely lagging finished. Indeed there's a run on wholesale material.: February 9, 2004 Sales of wholesalers rose 1.0 percent from November and 8.0 percent from their December 2002 level. The fact that wholesale inventories increased less than sales suggests an increase in exports, as we have already seen. Year-over-year growth in wholesale inventories is 25 percent of the pace of wholesale sales, likely signaling an increase in inventory building. And so that folks here can understand how you process data, here's the Chicago PMI. Numbers like 37 and 46 are low, not "rising inventories".: btmna.com