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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (8972)	2/29/2004 12:15:58 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

PPI capitalstool.com

To: russwinter who wrote (8972)	2/29/2004 12:53:43 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

Russ you obviously continue to view your entire world thru commodities. When your view is as narowly focused as yours, you are bound to come to some wrong conclusions. Brian Reynolds on Inventories Message 19855248 Quarterly slowdown As in the first estimate, the slowdown in growth in the fourth quarter from the third quarter was primarily due to a sharp deceleration in consumer spending, particularly on durable goods. Business investments and government spending also slowed, while inventory growth added nearly a percentage point to GDP. In the fourth quarter, spending on durables fell 0.1 percent, marking the first decline since the second quarter of 2000. cbs.marketwatch.com{10993D61-15AD-4BD6-80CC-8B335156127B}&siteid=mktw I was talking about growth in inventories relative to demand in the face of slowdown in consumer spending. It should have been clear to ANYONE that I was not talking about inventories of base metals, oil, NG, etc. I am aware, thanks to you, of how severe those shortages are and I appreciate the work you do in this area. I prefer to consider other points of view that this is not the only thing driving the world. jobless claims: cbs.marketwatch.com You continually overlook jobs as if they do not matter Message 19855154 Consumer sentiment fally off a cliff means nothing to your model, jobs mean nothing, outsourcing means nothing, tapped out consumers means nothing, a clear stance of the FED saying they will be patient means nothing, rising jobless claims mean nothing, the sheer unsustainability of this blowoff regardless of whether or not interest rates are hiked means nothing, China tightening means nothing even though it will take a couple months to work its way through the economy, consumers spending more on oil means they have less to spend on other things means nothing, the reasons for Japan and China buying treasuries means nothing to you as you feel they should not be doing it. You do good work but it is so tunnel-vision focused right now on the only thing you feel matters, that you miss the big picture. Commodities are not the only thing that matters, commodity inventories are not the only inventories in the world, and jobs, consumer sentiment, tightening in China, as well as the reasons China and Japan buy US treasuries all matter in the big picture. Mish