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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (46790)	2/29/2004 5:42:06 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

EP, <<Sounds like you are expecting the sky to fall>> ... at some point in the future, and it will likely be painful, for many, but like fatal battle wounds, just for a instant. I think investment is about making studied choices, and trading is an art achamchen.com . I think survival is about exercise of instinct and chance of luck Message 19854585 . I am figuring that the event that will define the progression chronicled by this thread will happen either before or after your domestic compatriots selects one of two leadership groups, each advocating a clearly differentiated prescription for the global economy. One team will borrow, spend and lead the world to a thorough financial cleansing. The other group will tax, spend and lead the planet to absolute economic workout. The difference between the two contending groups will be trivial. One will allow new ideas in off-shoring of just about all jobs so that the remaining wealthy around the world can be better off. The other team will try old ideas in protectionism that will cause severe economic contraction all around, making the better off of the world better off still. We will be fortunate if we can follow the footsteps of Japan, living off reserves until kingdom come. We will be unfortunate if we follow the example of stagflation France circa 1790s, or if we emulate depression Argentina round about now. In any and all cases, repudiation is coming straight at us, all around the world, of debt, obligations, and unworkable policies. I am optimistic, as optimistic as any about to experience a colonic flush, that all will be well afterwards. Soon, CB will be able to reach some tentative conclusions about: Message 15813707 <<May 17th, 2001 Hi CB, 20-30 books would take me about 5-8 years to work through. I would certainly be interested in your conclusions regarding the Big One in 1929.>> .. and equally soon, the haggling foreseen will happen on this thread: Message 16244385 <<August 22nd, 2001 Hi Joel, … creditor Japan holds the key to whether or not we have global depression (yes, there, I am now using that D word, and we will no doubt be haggling over the precise definition of the word shortly); and debtor/consumer America holds the key to "how deep, for how long".>> We can of course consider ourselves fortunate, for what could be more fortunate than able to learn history by re-living it ;0) If I am wrong, great, fantastic, and it will then be safe to get back to gambling in earnest, in tune will the then self-evident flow of the Force. Chugs, Jay