Hello Pezz, Last Night’s Sanity Check on 2004 YTD:
I navigated 2004 YTD badly, so far, but not as bad as I could have ;0) Here I am achamchen.com today
(a) CURRENCIES - I perhaps dumped my non-USDs too early; maybe USD will do the dead-cat bounce from a lower still level. I am in conflict, believing in the primary down trend that is reserved for the USD, but wanting also to partake in the looting during counter-trend rally(s).
The urge to play the counter-trend rally is especially strong given that, at least in nominal terms, there is no ‘risk’ when I re-engage with the USD/HKD, my base currency.
To cheer myself up, I still have 15.7% of my gross asset in AUD, and 3.3% in CAD/EURO.
(b) GOLD - I apparently dumped my paper gold too hastily; maybe USD 400 is the ‘remorse price’ of gold (according to dailyreckoning.com , the price we will wish we bought more gold).
The paper, which was always meant for trading (or so I try to console myself) was turned in for HKD (USD proxy), so, again, no nominal risk. My physical stash is what will allow me to experience USD 4,000/oz gold in a proper state of mind.
On the Newmont shares and options, I am OK with the equity long, USD 40/42.5 put short, and the USD 42.5 call short.
To make myself happy, as I could not conveniently trade the 7% of gross asset that is in physical gold/platinum, I still have it.
(c) EQUITY - I may have been a bit early in accumulating LEAP Puts on housing, financials, and the QQQ, since they have held shown no particular inclination to crash in a hurry. Apparently, despite the lack of jobs, and the continuing disaster that is the public and private balance sheets, and the magnitude of insider selling, J6P investoriate still believes all is well.
My Canadian Oil Sands uk.finance.yahoo.com took a 15.65% hit last night.
I got a foretaste of what a 15.65% loss on everything might feel like. Let me tell you, it will be scary :0)
I remind myself to remain true to the discipline of accumulating in dollops over time, and staying diversified within sectors. No amount of information access could have allowed me to sidestep some very common risks.
My Yanzhou Coal purchase appear overly hasty here Message 19875921 <<March 3rd, 2004>> and there Message 19876006 <<March 3rd, 2004>>, taking a 4.4% hit finance.yahoo.com .
To comfort myself, my COS is still comfortably (8%) above my average entry price; and, as an indication of how positioning can help the state of mind which in turn can lead to loot, I would be happy to add more COS should it tank with the general market, because it continues to be a good idea.
Besides, suffering from ‘house money syndrome, I tell myself that the last dollop of COS add was done Message 19743755 <<January 28th, 2004>> with money liberated from Saskatchewan Wheat Pool, which has dropped 6% from my selling point ;0)
Last refuge, I tell myself I did a very good move here Message 19854585 <<February 27th, 2004 … Lumacom>>, more brilliant every day as its price drops towards zero uk.finance.yahoo.com .
(d) BONDS - I have off-loaded a bit more bonds Message 19881301 <<March 5th, 2004>> because it is time. I use the proceeds to buy inflation-friendly dividend-yielding (preferably approximately the yield of the bond fund) non-energy/non-resource shares in non-USD space, to tap off the energy of coming possible global inflation, but sidestep the danger that is the USD.
(e) REAL ESTATE - I am tempted to leverage up on HK real estate, but will not, until the twin-bubbles China chills and US thrills. I am enthusiastic to bet more on US real estate decline, but will hold, just for a while longer, so that the looting is easier, as China/India chills the US thrills, and Japan starts to take fright with its world financing activities.
All in all I am OK with my current positions, however badly arrived at, since I am at a point that I can sleep well every night. My main concern over the past few weeks had been that I might lose my 2003 gains.
Chugs, Jay |
