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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (46924)	3/3/2004 2:53:35 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

What comes next after commodity price inflation ? 1)European recovery, from low base 2)Asia grows pulled by 3 engines - China, US, and soon Japan. Sensitive & leveraged economies in the region, like Thailand, Phillipines, Malaysia, etc. may do very well. This may be the highest payoff play. 3) Latin America improvement on commodity prices. 4) Capital equipmnet spending for non-IT picks up strongly, as world builds new infrastructure.

To: energyplay who wrote (46924)	3/3/2004 6:00:52 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

EP, <<No longer the natural trade...>> ... I will second that :0) <<Many commodities (except gold, which is also a currency) are in the middle of their trends, with strong fundamentals and good techncals,,,,>> ... I agree, but first, a nasty correction may take place, because when folks run away from positions, they tend to run from all positions ;0/ I think we have a choice on the commodities, decide to run early, or not run at all. <<Lots of good GDP numbers ...>> ... fragile, debt fueled, liquidity induced, not altogether real, setting up high valuations for a fall, particularly of houses, bonds, tech, dreams, ... and yes, commodities. I am afraid, and so have been the earlier to panic, while the panic is still fun, and can be done with half a smile on face ;0) Chugs, Jay