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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (1438)	3/7/2004 9:28:42 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

From Rien on the FOOL in reply to Delphi Just in Time Situation ========================================================== Now why does this remind me of derivatives? Seems like the "just-in-time" system that was so widely embraced only really works in a commodity market that has an over supply. Just as the derivative business was develloped in an ever rising dollar supply market. We may now be seeing what happens to the JIT system in a commodities markets with a supply deficit, most probably it will grind to a halt and shut down large parts of the economy. What will happen to the derivatives when the dollar supply slackens (i.e. deflation)? Best, Rien.

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (1438)	3/7/2004 11:59:49 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

Offshoring's giant target: the Bay Area Silicon Valley could face export of 1 in 6 jobs -- worst in nation Jobs are more likely to be shipped overseas from Silicon Valley than any other region in the nation, placing the Bay Area's economic engine directly in the path of the global freight train known as offshoring.... sfgate.com =========================================================== This is not pretty I fear for my wife's accounting job. There are all kinds of jobs EVERYWHERE that will be lost, not just tech or phone support. Before all is said and done this is going to get extremely ugly. Mish

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (1438)	3/7/2004 1:02:27 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

The Tipping Point Message 19888518

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (1438)	3/7/2004 1:07:21 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Splotto and Mish discuss destruction rates Splotto: I have to think that at some point, demolitions will increase to make room for new houses, which in a way skews the numbers. For example, 1 owner sells his house & land to a builder. He then buys another with the money. The builder rips down his house and builds 2 new homes. 4 transactions but only 1 net new home. Splotto Mish: Don't buy it. Not on a scale large enough to matter. Try this cause it is what is happening all around me right now, and I bet around you too. House on a farm of 20 acres. Everything sold to the developer. One house torn down 50-100 new houses built. In an up sacle area, say 1 acre min lot sizes perhaps 10-20 per one. I am not saying 1-1 does not happen but it is uneconomic and probably a very very small % of transactions. at 1/4 acre on a 20 acre parcel one would be torn down and 80 built. At 1 acre lot on a 20 acre parcel 1 would be torn down and 20 built. I would suspect there are 4 of the former for 1 of the latter so we get 5 down and 340 good to go. 5/340 = 1.47% But..... How many developments bigger than 20 acres? How many smaller? How much farm land with no houses at all? Hmmmm I would guess 1% max destruction rate in practice. Mish

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (1438)	3/7/2004 1:17:17 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

WayneOwl on my FOOL board talks about the situation in Venezuela ======================================================== Howdy .... I don't know if people in the U.S. ( or anywhere for that matter ) realize how serious this may be. The last stat I saw was that the U.S. imports 3.4 million bbd from there. What many don't realize is that special refineries had to built around Houston to process this goop due its special 'heavy' characteristices. Many of these refineries are incapable of simply switching to feedstock from other sources .... even if it can be produced and shipped! Venezuela's Ambassador to the U.N. has resigned and doesn't want to go home. At a recent protest, an opposition leader was shot dead. Accident? Maybe, but he was the only casualty at that particular protest. Chavez won't accept the results of the "recall" referendum. Chavez says that if the U.S. makes any overt move to depose him, he will cut off the Oil. Chavez's mentor and idol is Fidel Castro. tinyurl.com tinyurl.com Can you spell $ 50 per bbl Oil? Wayne