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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (1448)	3/7/2004 3:17:20 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Rien on the FOOL summs up the tipping point idea concisely His thoughts below: ========================================================== Jobs are coming -> (hyper)inflation. Jobs muddle through -> stagflation. Jobs continue to fall -> deflation. Best, Rien.

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (1448)	3/7/2004 4:34:08 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

USA can't ignore Venezuela's unrest San Antonio Express-News Enrique Rangel Forget Haiti. Although the turmoil in the small Caribbean nation is making world headlines, the United States and the international community may soon have a worse headache -- Venezuela. For those who don't pay much attention to what happens south of the Rio Grande, Hugo Chavez, the combative president of the oil-rich South American nation, is clashing again with his millions of political opponents and with Washington. San Antonio Express-News editorial writer Enrique Rangel: Chavez, who is fighting a second recall effort, has made it clear that he won't go out without a fight. Moreover, he used vulgar language to ridicule President Bush and threatened to stop oil sales to Uncle Sam. The authoritarian leader thinks the White House and his opponents are plotting to oust him, by force if necessary. What is happening in Venezuela is nothing new. Almost since he came to power in 1998, Chavez has been bickering with his opponents. The relationship between the two nations has been strained since Bush took office three years ago. The leaders don't like each other. Bush got irritated when Chavez started getting cozy with rogue states such as Cuba, Libya and Iraq. And Chavez has been equally upset that the White House has sided with his political opponents, who have been trying to get rid of him for more than two years, sometimes violently. In April 2002, he was briefly ousted by the military after dozens of people died in clashes between his opponents and supporters. The generals returned Chavez to power less than 48 hours later after an international outcry that a constitutionally-elected President had been overthrown. His millions of supporters ... especially in Caracas, the nation's capital ... were equally loud in demanding his return to power. The latest Venezuelan turmoil is worrisome for two reasons. This nation of 26 million people is more polarized than ever. As massive protests increase, whether in support of or in opposition to Chavez, so do the prospects of civil war. In mid-January, my most recent visit to the country, I sensed a boiling frustration in both camps, especially among the poor and unemployed who tend to support Chavez. In the slums of Caracas, they seem to have become more militant. It is frightening to think what would happen if Chavez were forced out again. Anarchy could return, like in 1989 when tens of thousands of slum dwellers looted the city after the government authorized a steep increase in transportation fees. Hundreds died in the rioting and looting. My other worry is the potential loss of Venezuela's oil. If Chavez makes good on his threat, it would be felt at American gas pumps, not to mention in the global economy. Venezuela is the fourth-largest oil supplier to the United States after Canada, Saudi Arabia and Mexico. The Bush administration ... like the Venezuelan opposition ... has consistently underestimated Chavez, but this time it would be wise to take him seriously. Although he's a demagogue, Chavez doesn't make threats lightly. Last year's firing of 16,000 workers at PDVSA, the state-owned oil monopoly, showed that he means what he says. The workers ... nearly half of the company's work force ... were fired for participating in a two-month business strike aimed at toppling Chavez. Whether Washington likes to admit it or not, the United States needs help from the international community in dealing with Chavez. The Bush administration has no one to blame but itself. Instead of working behind the scenes diplomatically, the White House has continuously sided with his opponents and lost its moral authority to broker a solution to Venezuela's conflict. Moreover, a respected career diplomat, not one of the ideologues running the US State Department's Western Hemisphere affairs bureau, needs to bluntly remind the administration that Latin America is not what it used to be -- a region ruled by Washington-backed strongmen. Although democracy is still frail in most of those nations, diplomacy and impartiality -- not antagonism and partisanship -- can solve most of the region's conflicts, even in Chavez's Venezuela. vheadline.com

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (1448)	3/7/2004 5:11:52 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

The latest in Mortgage Innovations 321gold.com

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (1448)	3/7/2004 5:12:32 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Splotto on vacancy rates: With 121 million owener occupied homes, 700k is only 0.5%. That's not a huge vacancay rate. However, I do agree that at some number, we are building more homes then we will need. But at that point prices would begin to level or fall. In that system you need to forget 'bubble' and 'mania' and focus on price. The bottom line is that people need to sell their house and buy a new one. As long as that transaction is supported by demand, then prices will not fall. Judging by the prices lately, I am not sure we are close to it yet. Splotto

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (1448)	3/7/2004 5:18:00 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

New World Economic Order From harmy on the FOOL There is a new world economic order rising and the US is increasingly being pushed to one side. The facts are before you right now. Who exported the very basic range of industries, which provides a country with its industrial strength, to cheap labour markets - the US. Who manufacturers most of the worlds earth moving machinery - Asia. When was the last oil tanker, or any commercial carrier, made in the US ?? - who knows. How many new ones are going to be built by the US ?? - none. When was the last refinery built in the US ?? - twenty years ago. Who will double oil imports to cater for industrial expansion (not SUV's) - China. Who is negotiating multi-billion NG contracts - China and Asia. Who will have the biggest increase in steel production - China. How many countries exceed or are fast catching up to the US production of corrosion resistant alloys - several. In almost any field you can name the US is either falling behind or is static. All the concern over the lack of jobs should tell you that industrial growth in the US is falling behind the rest of the world. .........and surely the most telling point of all - who has the money to buy US debt ??? So, if you are not witnessing a change or decline in the natural cycle then what are you witnessing ??? Regards Harmy