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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (1452)	3/7/2004 6:28:45 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

There are 121.415 million housing units in the U.S. (Q4, 2003) census.gov Of those, 15.557 million are vacant. A large portion of these are structural vacancies: normal rental turnover, homes for sale, occasional use homes, that sort of thing. This overall vacancy rate has been reasonably stable for years, but started increasing since 2000 and really accelerated last year. Overall vacancies in Q4, 2000 were 11.4%. This has increased to 12.8% Q4, 2003. The rental vacancies make sense, but they are still a concern as landlords fight back (about 800K of the 1.7 million increase). The other portion, that really accelerated last year, might indicate speculation. That would be a huge negative signal. A couple of other comments: 1) There appears to be overcapacity in housing, but there is nothing that says we can't have MORE overcapacity! 2) Markets move at the margin, and so 800K more vacant units here, and 700K more vacant units there, is a concern (although the increases in overall vacancy only equal about 1.4% of the entire housing market). This is especially a concern, since vacancies appear to be accelerating. (NOTE: Next release April 22nd for Q1, 2004) 3) Anyone have any information on the rental delinquency rate? Vacancies and delinquencies are two of the major worry signs for landlords. I will check around on this. 4) Splotto has really helped me! I will watch prices closely going forward.