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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (13776)	3/7/2004 6:40:16 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 95385

This post has the same format as the last post which detailed the Group performance over the period from 1/12, but the data in the table is for the SOX. Four of the 18 stocks in the SOX were up over the period while the remaining 14 stocks were down. At the bottom line the SOX is down 10 percent. All four of the semi-equips in the SOX had losses greater than 10 percent, AMAT(-13), TER(-13), KLAC(-15) and NVLS(-30). - 1/12/04 3/5/04 FST CALL NEXT FST CALL - CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT NXT YR YEAR LNG TRM SYMBOL PRICE PRICE CHANGE EARN PE GROWTH PEG MOT 16.20 18.08 12 0.62 29 10 2.92 MU 15.28 16.31 7 0.66 25 18 1.37 BRCM 41.01 41.25 1 1.23 34 30 1.12 TSM 11.18 11.20 0 0.69 16 25 0.65 AMD 15.77 15.36 -3 0.58 26 15 1.77 XLNX 42.47 40.79 -4 1.12 36 23 1.62 TXN 32.80 31.47 -4 1.29 24 20 1.22 NSM 43.10 40.87 -5 1.85 22 15 1.47 LSI 10.90 10.29 -6 0.46 22 20 1.12 MXIM 55.99 49.48 -12 1.54 32 25 1.29 STM 29.90 26.22 -12 1.28 20 18 1.14 LLTC 44.95 39.10 -13 1.23 32 22 1.48 AMAT* 24.63 21.42 -13 1.15 19 20 0.93 TER* 27.74 24.05 -13 1.42 17 16 1.07 KLAC* 62.60 53.25 -15 2.37 22 20 1.11 INTC 34.15 28.95 -15 1.47 20 16 1.23 ALTR 26.82 22.60 -16 0.72 31 20 1.57 NVLS* 44.44 31.16 -30 1.54 20 20 1.03 TOTALS 579.93 521.85 -10 21.22 SOX-X 560.65 504.25 -10 COMPQX2111.78 2053.56 -3 Now we can do the sort by PEG. A much different arrangement takes place in the table. With the exception of TSM in 1st place in the table with a PEG of 0.65, the next 4 in the table are the semi-equips, AMAT(0.93), NVLS(1.03), TER(1.07) and KLAC(1.11). - 1/12/04 3/5/04 FST CALL NEXT FST CALL - CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT NXT YR YEAR LNG TRM SYMBOL PRICE PRICE CHANGE EARN PE GROWTH PEG TSM 11.18 11.20 0 0.69 16 25 0.65 AMAT* 24.63 21.42 -13 1.15 19 20 0.93 NVLS* 44.44 31.16 -30 1.54 20 20 1.03 TER* 27.74 24.05 -13 1.42 17 16 1.07 KLAC* 62.60 53.25 -15 2.37 22 20 1.11 BRCM 41.01 41.25 1 1.23 34 30 1.12 LSI 10.90 10.29 -6 0.46 22 20 1.12 STM 29.90 26.22 -12 1.28 20 18 1.14 TXN 32.80 31.47 -4 1.29 24 20 1.22 INTC 34.15 28.95 -15 1.47 20 16 1.23 MXIM 55.99 49.48 -12 1.54 32 25 1.29 MU 15.28 16.31 7 0.66 25 18 1.37 NSM 43.10 40.87 -5 1.85 22 15 1.47 LLTC 44.95 39.10 -13 1.23 32 22 1.48 ALTR 26.82 22.60 -16 0.72 31 20 1.57 XLNX 42.47 40.79 -4 1.12 36 23 1.62 AMD 15.77 15.36 -3 0.58 26 15 1.77 MOT 16.20 18.08 12 0.62 29 10 2.92 TOTALS 579.93 521.85 -10 21.22 SOX-X 560.65 504.25 -10 COMPQX2111.78 2053.56 -3

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (13776)	3/7/2004 6:48:24 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95385

Don, for those interested all the stocks listed in your table (plus A) can be found in 6 month chart form by clicking on the link below and checking the next few posts: investorshub.com Thanks for the updated table. It's very encouraging for those of us who are long that the SMH and SOX continued to hold up well despite the double whammy of INTC's lowered expectations and the disappointing jobs numbers. amateur-investors.com investmenthouse.com There is however a not so subtle bit of sector rotation taking place as was highlighted this weekend here. SNIP: SECTORS AND EXPANSION stockcharts.com Relative strength or price relative charts provide an idea of which sectors will lead and lag over the next few weeks and months. These are formed by dividing the Sector Index by the Wilshire 5000 or another broad market index. These particular four sectors are positioned according to the place in an economic expansion in which they perform best. Techs and Transports are supposed to perform best during the early expansion phase, while Basic Materials and Energy perform best in the late expansion phase. Sector performance suggests that we are in the late phase of an economic expansion. Techs are starting to weaken as the price relative broke below its trendline and Transports have totally fallen apart. The two standout performers are Energy and Basic Materials. Relative to the Wilshire 5000, the Energy SPDR (XLE) broke above resistance in December and continues to forge new highs. The price relative for the Basic Materials SPDR (XLB) fell earlier this year, but bounced in February and remains in an uptrend. And as always we need to be at least aware of where the market has itself priced on a historical basis. Hint... Higher than average! nytimes.com Anyway, thanks for the tables. Great work as always! RtS