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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (13782)	3/8/2004 12:08:51 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95406

Bob, Thanks for taking the time to write a very comprehensive post on the "semi situation". You point out many, many factors that enter into the present situation and it makes a lot of sense to me. What doesn't make sense to me is the present "excessive weakness"(in my thinking) in the semi-equip area. As shown in recent tables, approximately 10 out of the 25 semi-equips in the Group have PEG's less than one. This type of tabular behavior is more closely associated with semi-equip "bottoms" than "tops". Semi-equip companies are still being upgraded on a regular basis, not downgraded. Take today for example. First Albany has upgraded AMAT, KLAC and PLAB. Needham & Co has upgraded NVLS. There are no downgrades today. I still think the semi-equips have some upside ahead, but at the moment, "Mr Market" doesn't seem to think so. Don

To: robert b furman who wrote (13782)	3/8/2004 2:20:09 PM
From: michael97123	Respond to of 95406

Hi Bob, Perhaps what we also need is hiring and capex spending capitulation by the folks who now have money budgeted for both but are scared by the gurus into premature hiring and ordering. I dont know if they have capitulated yet this quarter. For instance i work for a 120 person firm that has a mandate to grow to 150 first half of this year. No hiring yet. Does anyone else see this in either hiring or capex? It reminds me of the end of the bubble when capex was still roaring and folks were still being hired. Its a shift of momentum--a shift of outlook and it needs to happen if it hasnt started already. A big employment number would be a good sign. Mike PS or is it possible that analysts are basing their calls on lack of robust enought capex and hiring and a slip back to slow growth or even to recession and deflation. I worried about that when gnp growth went from 8% to 4%. I guess we have to consider that. Bond market seems to say that too and oil market beginnning to impose a tax on consumers as well as business.