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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (13785)	3/8/2004 12:35:28 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95406

Don, It's only been a couple of weeks since the AMAT gap and crap. I believe that the majority of the short positions established that day are still being held or are in the process of being unwound before April's earnings releases. It appears to me that the larger caps have held up better then the small caps during this same period. I don't have any statistical proof, it's just my impression from watching the action and from glancing at the charts. Add to this that we had a great run off the bottom and I think we have to look at this as consolidation. Without a catalyst (earnings or a major merger), I think the SOX and SMH will meander along for another couple of weeks. I have not begun to establish major new positions. I've been dabbling with a couple of stocks that I feel are both under valued and have been excessively sold off, ASYT and SYXI. There just isn't any incentive, at this point, to get into big positions short or long, imo. Nibble on the longer term holds you wish to keep and trade the swings but for the most part I see choppy charts and little direction. My speculation is the retail investor appears to be selling and locking in their profits from the big move and getting weak hands during this choppy period while there is stealth accumulations going on, especially in the smaller caps that I follow. Drifting lower on fairly light volume appears to be the trend for many SCE and Semi companies. The PEGs and PEs are flat out saying buy but the market isn't paying attention. This could simply be lack of interest or it might be because of my above speculation. I don't think we'll have an answer until mid-April, when we'll have the benefit of hindsight. mh