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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (125793)	3/8/2004 7:25:16 PM
From: TimF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

No, the US gets its way in the world to a large extent because it is the only superpower. The unification of Europe provides a bit of a balance to that, but it is a very friendly balance. Its not all about the US getting its own way. I think the US having influence and power in the world is helpful, but I could easily deal with a reasonably peaceful and stable world where the US is only one of several major powers rather then THE superpower. The less peaceful the world is the more relative American power matters. If growth in China continues to the point where they are as wealthy, per capita, as the Japanese, Hong Kongese, Singaporeans, or Americans, the result will be a China that is more powerful than the US. If China passes or even comes close to the US in terms of per capita wealth most likely it will eventually become more powerful then the US, but I don't think its rapid growth rate will continue that long. I think it will eventually pass the US in gross production but there's a chance it may never pass the US in per capita wealth or production, and if it does it will be a long time before it happens. Also I think if/when it happens China will likely enough be democratic or at least semi-democratic. That China will somehow stop growing is just more wishful thinking on his part. That China will stop growing (long term, not just a pause in growth or a recession) is unlikely but that it will continue to grow much faster then the US for many decades also seems unlikely. You can take a straight projection of the relative growth rates and extend it out forever and eventually the average individual Chinese citizen would be able to buy the US. Obviously that is taking it to absurd lengths but there is no reason to think that the disparate growth rates might not stop well before they hint at the absurd. This is about as true of China as it is of the US. Of course there are regions where advanced manufacturing is concentrated. In the US we call them "Silicon Valley" or whatever. And even in San Jose, most of the population does not work in high tech. The regional disparity is far less in the US then it is in China. If I am to assume your link is accurate (and I have no reason to think otherwise) the disparity in China is less then I thought it was but large area of China are still not participating in the boom the way most of coastal China is. Tim