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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (9791)	3/9/2004 11:01:44 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

The only thing your fictional "market" cares about right now, is massive BOJ intervention and can the dollar stay weak enough to allow this to continue happening. Can they keep up the $50 billion a week pace? Jobs has very, very little to do with this action. Blatantly WRONG! Eurodollars have consistantly moved with Jobs and treasuries have usually but not always done the same thing. For example treasuries stayed in a tight range for a long time and eurodollars jumped big on every bad jobs announcement. That is why I have told everyone I prefer Eurodollars and Euribors over treasuries. Treasuries probably make a lower range(in yield) but Eurodollars will continue to focus on jobs. If and whe the PPI comes out we will probably see a minor correction in treasuries and eurodollars but the focus will then shift back to the most important thing that matters: jobs. As for Japanses intervention, so what? They are doing what they said they would be doing, they told Greenspan to butt out, and they will continue to do what they said they would do, and silly treasury bears on this board got their ass handed to them as a result. That is the long and short of it. Mish

To: russwinter who wrote (9791)	3/9/2004 12:16:54 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

Date: Tue Mar 09 2004 12:03 trotsky (bond market) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved short squeeze remains on...convexity buying by the GSEs probably begins here, and fund managers who collectively missed the boat are beginning to rush in. if pressure on the stock market persists, the buying will likely intensify by another notch. and in case of an emerging markets dislocation ( which is highly likely in view of the absolutely crazy exposure of banks and hedge funds in convergence trades ) the fun will really start. Date: Tue Mar 09 2004 10:40 trotsky (permabull Hugh Johnson) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved asserts that we're in the 'second year of the bull market' ( a sentiment which is incidentally typically found near the top of a bear market B wave ) , but concedes that economists and market strategists economic performance and profit forecasts may be a 'tad too optimistic'. you can say that again...they're not just a 'tad' too optimistic, they're probably as wildly off the mark as they could possibly be. i'm looking forward to Huge Johnson's excuses as to why it didn't work out a year from now. he urges people to sell their bonds, trash their cash, and shove it all into equities...a recipe for disaster imo...note that mutual fund cash-to-asset ratios are at an all time low, iow, unless the sheeple fork over more of their dough, they have little ramp ammunition left.