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To: The Freep who wrote (93087)	3/11/2004 1:32:10 PM
From: skinowski	Respond to of 209892

F - interesting questions... I've been wondering the same. No opinions yet. I must run to take care of my office, but tonight will share whatever (misleading?) insights I may have...

To: The Freep who wrote (93087)	3/11/2004 2:32:32 PM
From: Henry J Costanzo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

<<whether this is just an iv of the move out of the March low or a 4 from the Oct 2002 lows is one that could make a lot of difference.>> Certainly agree that's what we should be trying to figure out.....and it's a tough one......Don't think I can say anything "meaningful", but thought I might post a reply to make jj feel better. My EW problematic, so I'll shift to TA and those MAs I live and breathe by...g. Looking back to the whole uptrend since March, seems to me that the last couple of days have one outstanding feature:....It is the most substantial break of a 50SMA in the major indexes we have seen in the entire lengthy post-March rally...That could be taken as an indication that the post-March move has been terminated.........ergo, that we're not dealing here with a iv out of the move from the March . Mind you, not saying this is the answer.....just some food for thought....(although if I had to vote on this today, this would be my choice.... (Note.....there have been instances since Mar when the major indexes have briefly, and slightly, fallen below the 50 SMA......The largest and longest-lasting of the penetrations was in the SPX in early August). Having said all that, the question then arises as to whether or not the indexes should also now move down, in the Big 4 down, to the 200 day SMAs....which haven't been touched since last March.......That would open the door to more big moves down.........the 200s are today around 9755 DOW, 1875 COMPX, and 1050 SPX (and rising).........Unfortunately, around those levels would also be required if the completed Big 3 falls back into the area of the preceding iv of lesser degree (as is often supposed to happen). All in the interests of food for thought....bearing down here....trying to figure it out...........Have fun.........<VBG>

To: The Freep who wrote (93087)	3/11/2004 8:02:20 PM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

OEX: Connect the tops starting June 17 and extend the line to the present. You will find that the index closed just about on that line. Cool. Also, check the decline into 2/2 low. You'll find that this latest collapse is not far from being 162% of the former. SPX: This index traced out an Ending Diagonal, which topped out on 3/5, and then dully collapsed. The bulk of the decline contains a completed-looking impulse which started on 3/5. Could be a 3 or C or part thereof. Last leg of the decline (this afternoon) sports a bullish divergence on (hourly) RSI. COMPX also looks like it has been hit by a 3 or C or a part thereof. Paradoxically, the weaker COMPX holds a better bullish potential, IMO, since the whole enchilada can be read as a completed three-waver down. Would not be my preferred at this time, however. Last but not least, SMH hasn't done anything yet which would disqualify it from being in an overshoot wave of a bullish wedge (180 min). All it has to do is kick butt hard to the upside in the nearest future. Will it??... At this time I would like to turn over the podium to the next speaker... -g.