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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tejek who wrote (184564)	3/14/2004 1:51:19 PM
From: hmaly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1573925

Ted Re...First, no one said that oil production was going to stop or fall off a cliff. What was said is that oil production will peak some time in the future, and not that it was going to dead end. I think you are misinterpreting Tim's remarks. Tim, is trying to say, that just as the US found other sources, after US production peaked, (ME for example); after those resources are found, and peaked, the US, and the world will turn to other sources, for their energy needs. Such as tar sands, shale oil, coal gasification etc, for hydrocarbons, nuclear, wind, solar, for electric energy, etc. It will cost more, but alternate sources exist, even today. What does the world do when the world's production peaks and demand remains high? If I were you, I would entertain the possibility, demand will outpace capacity, long before capacity peaks. As an example, lets say todays production is 100 mln bbls oil/day. In the yr, 2020, demand might be 150 mln bbls/day, while production will have grown to only 120 mln bbls/day. With deep sea drilling, tar sands, etc, it is likely production will keep on expanding far longer than one might think. It is also likely, with China, India, etc, demand will boom faster than production increases.

To: tejek who wrote (184564)	3/15/2004 7:29:39 PM
From: TimF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1573925

What was said is that oil production will peak some time in the future, and not that it was going to dead end. The term "Dead end" was used. Secondly, you inferred that when the world's production peaks, it will be no worse than when US production peaked. Not at all. I didn't say the situation would be the same in terms of how bad it was. I said the situation would be the same in the sense that there will not be a huge sudden drop off in production after the peak. Specifically I said that there would be no "dead end" in world production, just like there was no "dead end" in US production. What does the world do when the world's production peaks and demand remains high? The price goes up until supply and demand balance. If price controls are attempted then there will be real shortages (at least to the extent that the controls can be enforced and our not undermined by those who seek to evade them), but if the price is allowed to float freely then demand will be contained by the rising price and alternate sources of energy will come online now that the price is high enough to support those alternate sources. Tim