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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (2024)	3/14/2004 8:48:42 PM
From: Mike McFarland	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Puts on the stock market? I don't know why raising fed funds slowly and gradually would upset the stock market so dramatically. But I have an idea it will let the air out of bonds, there seems to be a lot being said about a bubble in the bond market due to something called the 'carry trade' and some short covering after the jobs report. But honestly, you are quite right, I am at least partly clueless, this is all mainly jibberish to me, but I do know that there has been a very very long bull market in bonds, and at the least all good things come to an end. Just like the stock market in 2000. I do suppose that there is a chance I have been brainwashed by Krugman, Roach, and James Grant, fair enough, I certainly do not know anything more than what I read--if it sounds convincing it sticks. Those fellas sound pretty convincing, and I especially liked the Steven Roach commentary of a week or two ago. But if I make some money in the next year or two on that ryjux bet, I want all the credit <g>. As far as shorting treasuries outright, nah, that fund is the way to go for me. I am not greedy, and there is certainly a chance I'll be selling it in a few days if the fed did something really spooky, like dropping a quarter. They should show some confidence in the economy, let the tail wag the dog with a minor raise. Gold, now why would I ever put a bet on something I could not care a whiff about. I don't get paid in gold, and I wouldn't know how to spend it, so I sure as hell would not speculate on that crap one way or the other. I heard once that an ounce of gold would buy you a good suit--but I have to do the conversion because the Men's Wearhouse does not accept Maple Leafs or Kruggarrands, or whatever the hell the gold bugs chase around. Now, I would pay anywhere from $200 to $600 for an everyday suit, so that tells me that gold is about fairly priced, ha ha. No, I just wasted several minutes thinking about whether other people buy nicer suits, when the only thing that really matters is that I lose weight and look better in the one suit I already own.