Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (280272)	3/16/2004 4:42:19 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Date: Tue Mar 16 2004 16:10 trotsky (J'bear, 13:42) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved well, i for one don't think that FDR 'had no choice'. in fact, the general economic views of the US population at the time were far less influenced by statist dogma than they are today. the last 'laissez faire recession' in history, of 1920/21 was still fresh in most people's memories, and as the treatment of recessions goes ( hands off ) it was a resounding success, since it gave way to a renewed upswing very quickly. of course FDR was helped beforehand by the example of the fools in Congress who passed the tarrif act. economic ignorance then took root irrevocably with the appearance of the charlatan Keynes, who gave FDR the post facto 'scientific' support for his disastrous economic policies. i also disagree on the 'today everything will happen faster' point. i'd argue the opposite - all the available evidence ( beginning with the top in the Nikkei in '89 ) points to the fact that the financial/economic cycles have LENGHTENED rather than shortened. i believe there are two major reasons for this: 1. the very large cycles, like the K-wave, are partly dependent on life expectancy, or how long it takes for a third generation to thoroughly forget the experiences of the first; and 2. market intervention by the authorities has been honed to perfection, and they're not afraid to intervene in truly dramatic fashion ( see BoJ ) . this not only worsens the underlying structural situation ( thereby guaranteeing a bigger bust down the road ) , it also lengthens the intermediate term cycles. for instance, the recent bear market rally in the US and European markets was one of the longest such rallies ever observed in the course of a deflationary bust, exceeding even the Nikkei's first significant post bubble rally in duration ( if not size ) .